Vinokurov, E. (2017) Eurasian Economic Union: Current State and Preliminary Results. Russian Journal of Economics, 3 (1), pp. 54–70.
This paper assesses the current results of the establishment of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). On the one hand, the EAEU has not been an impeccable “success story”. The EAEU's progress has slowed after initial rapid progress. On the other hand, it has achieved much. The EAEU is best viewed not as an exception to general rules of regional economic integration, but rather as a functioning customs union with its own successes and stumbling blocks, enriched by several additional quite developed areas of economic integration. This paper reviews the state of Eurasian institutions, the single market for goods and services, the state of mutual trade and investment flows among member states, ongoing work to eliminate non-tariff barriers, problems pertaining to the efficient coordination of macroeconomic policies, progress toward establishing an EAEU network of free trade areas, the state of the common labor market, and the dynamics of public opinion relative to Eurasian integration in the five member states.
Vinokurov E., Demidenko M., Korshunov D. (2017) Potential Costs and Benefits of Monetary Integration in the Eurasian Economic Union. Voprosy Ekonomiki, 2, pp. 75–96.
The Treaty of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), in force in 2015, marked the transition to the deep regional economic integration, including the coordination of macroeconomic and monetary poliсies. The paper provides quantitative analysis of the costs and benefits of the ultimate scenario, namely of the hypothetical monetary union. The analysis indicates that the monetary union would require a large-scale preparatory work by the EAEU member states and is justified only in the long term.
Demidenko M., Mironchik N., Kuznetsov A. (2016) Dollarization: Causes and Policy Implications. Bank Bulletin Magazine, No 12/641 (December), pp. 3–10.
The article addresses the issue of dollarization in the Republic of Belarus. The authors elaborate on possible measures to reduce the level of dollarization in the country.
The paper appraises current progress in establishing the Customs Union and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). Although the progress has slowed down after the initial rapid advancement, the Union is better viewed not as an exception from the general rules of regional economic integration but rather as one of the functioning customs unions with its successes and stumbling blocs. The paper reviews the state of Eurasian institutions, the establishment of the single market of goods and services, the situation with mutual trade and investment flows among the member states, the ongoing work on the liquidation/unification of non-tariff barriers, the problems of the efficient coordination of macroeconomic policies, progress towards establishing an EAEU network of free trade areas with partners around the world, the state of the common labor market, and the dynamics of public opinion on Eurasian integration in the five member states.
Vinokurov E. (2016) Unter Partnern Ein nüchterner Blick auf die Eurasische Wirtschaftsunion. Osteuropa, 5, pp. 129–140.
Evgeny Vinokurov. “Among Partners: The Eurasian Economic Union.”
The Eurasian Economic Union, founded in 2015, is the most important integration project in post-Soviet space. After more than two decades of disintegration and failed reintegration, Russia, Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan now have for the first time a common market for goods and services. However, some goods are exempt and non-tariff barriers are numerous. For now, coordination of monetary and fiscal policies remains only a goal. Just as important as internal integration is the expansion of cooperation with China and the European Union as the new common market’s most important partners. The creation of a “Fortress Eurasia” would be suicide.
Vinokurov E., Pereboyev V. (2016) Mapping the Potential EU-EAEU Cooperation Agenda: Readmission Agreements, Visa-Free Regime, Labour Migration, Mobility of Pensions, Large-Scale Educational Exchanges, Recognition of Professional Diplomas and Certificates. IIASA Working Paper, WP 16-013.
This paper deals with a potential long-term cooperation agenda of the European Union and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) on the movement of people. The paper provides a brief technical background on five various issues. It argues for the visa-free regime; advancing large-scale academic exchanges; introducing the mobility of trans-border pensions between two integration blocs; and partial recognition of professional certificates and diplomas. At the same time, authors argue against prematurely raising the issue of the labour migration in the EU-EAEU context.
The authors consider the emergence of the EEU to be a major step forward after a number of false starts in the 1990s and 2000s. To promote the integration’s impact the authors suggest the agenda for next 10 years which includes completing the formation of a single market for goods and services, unifying non-tariff barriers within the union, coordinating macroeconomic policy, creating a network of free-trade areas and free-trade agreements. The authors note that despite the mechanisms have yet to undergo substantial improvements, the EEU is already a single economic space with a relatively clear development roadmap and growth prospects.
Vinokurov E. - Mega Deal Between the European Union and the Eurasian Economic Union. Russia in Global Affairs, №4
Evgeny Vinokurov, Ph.D., Director, Center for Integration Studies, Eurasian Development Bank
Abridged version published in Russian in: Izvestiya, October 6th, 2014 and TASS, October 14th. Abridged English version to be published in: World Finance Review, December 2014. Complete paper
Vinokurov E., Libman A. (2014) Do Economic Crises Impede or Advance Regional Economic Integration in the Post-Soviet Space? Post-Communist Economies, 26 (3), pp. 341-358
This article investigates the effect of economic crises on the development of post-Soviet regional integration, focusing on Russia–Kazakhstan relations and particularly the case of the Belarus, Russia and Kazakhstan customs union. While the literature often argues that crises are accompanied by growing protectionism, we observe a substantially more complex relation. We find that crises as a rule result in an increase in integration rhetoric and can also result in an increase in actual economic and institutional integration. However, the actual integration effort goes up only when a crisis has followed a prolonged period of economic growth, i.e. the countries have accumulated sufficient reserves. At the same time, the existing ties must be strong, with no viable alternative available to the policy makers. Otherwise there is too strong an incentive to use protectionist measures to compensate for the decrease in budgetary revenue.
The EU-Russia relations experienced several waves of relative successes and failures over the last 23 years. Signing a Partnership Agreement in 1994 (functional since 1997 until 2007, when it has not been prolonged) was an evident success. The years 2003 and 2004 happened to be a particular period of growing interest and optimism in economic cooperation and even integration of the European Union and Russia. However, in the following years, this issue receded into the background.