April 2020. Outlook update

27 April 2020

The EDB Member countries’ operating conditions changed substantially in late March and early April 2020. Tightened quarantine responses to the COVID-19 pandemic in the major economies caused the global economic growth outlook to be reassessed for the worse. The unprecedented measures taken by the authorities of most of the Bank’s member countries to contain the spread of the disease, in addition to the fall of external demand and commodity prices, are exerting a considerable effect on economic activity in the region. Consequently, we have updated the projections of our member countries’ key macroeconomic indicators in the light of the above factors.

According to our updated estimates, the EDB member countries’ aggregate GDP will decline by 2.2% in 2020 after a 1.7% rise the year before. Output is expected to fall in Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus and Armenia (by 2.3%, 1.0%, 3.3% and 1.7%, respectively), and to decelerate considerably in the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan (to 0.1% and 5.5%, respectively). The economies will be supported by the authorities’ large-scale fiscal policy measures. The EDB projects economic activity in the region to recover in 2021–2022 as the global economy and commodity and financial markets stabilize. We expect the aggregate GDP of the Bank’s member countries to grow by 2.6% in 2021 and by 2.3% in 2022.

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