EDB Proposes a Framework for Power Connectivity in Central Asia: Better System Management, Not Just More Power Lines
Almaty, 29 Оctober 2026. — The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) has published Energy Without Borders: A Framework for Power Connectivity in Central Asia. The report examines how the region can make more electricity available without building new power plants — through coordinated system operation, digital monitoring and phased market development.
One of the key challenges identified in the report is the availability of generating capacity, rather than simply its installed volume. At the annual peak load on 10 December 2024, power plants in the Central Asian Unified Power System had a combined installed capacity of 36.4 GW, but only 28.8 GW was available. Around 6.6 GW was unavailable precisely when the system needed it most.
EDB experts estimate that closing this gap could generate net economic benefits of up to US$120 million a year for the region.
Key findings
· Capacity availability is a critical constraint. At peak load on 10 December 2024, 6.6 GW was unavailable because of cold reserve capacity, hydrological and fuel constraints, equipment condition and network limitations.
· Physical interconnection has yet to translate into extensive electricity trade. Cross-border electricity trade within the Central Asian Unified Power System totalled 12.1 billion kWh in 2024 — well below the levels seen in mature regional markets.
· Initial gains are achievable without major construction. Digitalisation, accurate assessment of available transmission capacity and coordinated system operation could enable up to 6 billion kWh of additional electricity trade annually.
· Economic benefits. Integration could generate gross benefits of up to US$640 million a year and net benefits, after costs, of up to US$120 million a year. These scenario-based estimates indicate the potential scale of the benefits.
· Renewable energy growth raises the cost of poor coordination. More than 35 GW of variable generation capacity is planned by 2035. Uzbekistan alone is projected to face renewable energy curtailment of 2.1–3.5 billion kWh annually in 2026–2028.
· The distribution of benefits is a key risk. Positive outcomes for the region as a whole do not mean that benefits will be shared evenly among countries. An economically beneficial project may remain politically difficult unless arrangements for sharing the gains are agreed in advance.
About the report
Central Asia is not starting energy integration from scratch. The region has inherited extensive grid interconnections, established arrangements for seasonal water and electricity exchanges, and a distinctive combination of complementary resources: thermal generation in Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan; hydropower potential in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan; growing solar and wind capacity; major demand centres; and several routes for electricity trade with neighbouring regions.
However, the existing system was designed for different conditions: centralised planning, predictable demand and dispatchable generation whose output was determined by system operators rather than the weather. Demand is now growing by up to 6% annually and could reach around 370 billion kWh by 2030. Much of the network and generating infrastructure needs modernisation, while the share of variable generation is rising rapidly. These changes require substantially greater control over power system operation.
The report’s central argument is that the future value of interconnection depends on the quality of system operation, rather than simply the number of transmission lines. Without clear rules, power lines remain lines on a map.
Drawing on operational data from the Energia Coordinating Dispatch Centre, the report considers regional electricity cooperation as a practical means of pursuing a “middle path” that balances reliability, affordability and environmental sustainability.
Particular attention is given to hydropower. Toktogul, the Naryn cascade, Nurek and the planned Rogun development provide resources for system regulation, meeting peak demand and seasonal balancing across the region. Water in Central Asia serves multiple purposes, including irrigation, food security and interstate commitments on water releases. The report therefore argues that hydropower flexibility should be treated as a remunerated system service, with explicit arrangements governing its provision and use.
EDB experts estimate that deeper energy integration in Central Asia could deliver gross system-wide benefits of up to US$640 million annually and net economic benefits, after integration costs, of up to US$120 million annually. More efficient use of existing networks could increase cross-border electricity trade by approximately 6 billion kWh a year.
To advance this agenda, EDB experts identify five priorities:
Digital monitoring and commercial metering. Regional trade requires real-time visibility of system conditions and reliable measurement of electricity deliveries.
Calculation and publication of available transmission capacity. A substantial share of the benefits can be achieved by making better use of existing networks.
Priority grid reinforcements. The report sets out a portfolio of projects ranked according to the principle of “one constraint — one system-wide benefit — one project”, with measurable performance indicators.
Phased market development. The proposed transition begins with structured bilateral trade and clear rules for settling deviations from scheduled deliveries, followed by a regional day-ahead market, and subsequently balancing and ancillary services markets.
Remuneration for hydropower flexibility and explicit compensation arrangements. The balancing capabilities of upstream hydropower plants should be assigned an economic value and governed by contracts.
The report also examines external interconnections to the south — including the risks and conditions associated with CASA-1000 — as well as northern, eastern and trans-Caspian connections. It assesses the conditions under which these links can strengthen regional cooperation.
The technical, economic and institutional dimensions of power connectivity in Central Asia are inseparable. The region has the physical infrastructure, complementary resources and growing demand that make coordination economically worthwhile. The challenge is to establish a governance framework capable of turning inherited grid interconnections into a functioning regional market.
Energy Without Borders: A Framework for Power Connectivity in Central Asia and other analytical publications are available on the EDB website.
Additional Information:
The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) is a multilateral development bank investing in Eurasia. For 20 years, the Bank has worked to strengthen and expand economic ties and foster comprehensive development in its member countries. By the end of June 2026, the EDB’s cumulative portfolio comprised 348 projects with a total investment of US $22.1 billion. Its portfolio consists principally of projects with an integration effect in transport infrastructure, digital systems, green energy, agriculture, manufacturing and mechanical engineering. The Bank adheres to the UN Sustainable Development Goals and ESG principles in its operations.
The EDB is implementing three mega-projects as part of its 2022–2026 Strategy: the Eurasian Transport Network, the Eurasian Commodity Distribution Network and the Central Asian Water and Energy Complex.
The EDB Media Centre:
+7 (727) 244 40 44, ext. 4774, 2160