Finmarket: The flow of migrants from Central Asia to Russia to grow

In the near future, the number of migrants coming from Central Asia to work in Russia will grow. This will be especially the case for Tajikistan and the Kyrgyz Republic where money transfers from migrants working in Russia almost reach 50% of the GDP figures. These are the findings of a joint research by Eurasian Development Bank (EDB), the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the Laboratory for Comparative Social Studies at the National Research University of the Higher School of Economics, and the Russian Academy of Sciences. The researchers found out that, although migration to Russia from Central Asia slowed down to some extent in 2014, in the global perspective Russia remains one of the leading destination countries for migrants from Central Asia. This will be boosted by the growing inequality among countries in terms of employment opportunities and the existing inequality in income. These circumstances have their advantages and disadvantages and, therefore, need to be balanced with more thoughtful policies. Such policies should not only aim at managing the flows of people, but factor in wider socioeconomic effects of migration and money transfers. The researchers focused primarily on two countries - Tajikistan and the Kyrgyz Republic, and, partially, Uzbekistan. This special focus is explained by the fact that migrants' transfers in these countries relative to GDP are significant: over 40% in Tajikistan, and around 30% in the Kyrgyz Republic. Uzbekistan's dependence on migrants' money is lower (although it leads in terms of the amounts of money transfers and the number of migrants). Kazakhstan, for example, has itself become a host country for migrants, although not at the same scale as Russia. Most Central Asian migrants go to Russia for work not because they want to, but because they have to, and they don't want or plan to stay in Russia for ever. This is forced migration when, most often, men (especially in Tajikistan) go to earn money to support their families. High unemployment (the amount of people without work who are either not employed, or are inactive in the labour market) is one of the main causes for migration. In Russia unemployment is minimal, compared to Central Asian countries. Here migrants occupy the niches in the labour market, which are either not in demand or not in sufficient demand among Russian citizens. Migrant workers are a "buffer" in Russia's labour market (as in many other developed countries): they are the first to lose jobs when demand for labour goes down because of economic recession. Another significant factor for migration is the great inequality in income (and wages) in Russia and Central Asian countries. While in Russia migrants' wages are rather low, translated in local currencies they are sufficient to support families. According to Tatyana Karabchuk, head of the Laboratory for Comparative Social Studies at the National Research University of the Higher School of Economics, in 2015 migration volumes and attitudes recovered at the previous levels. Today, Russia is the absolute leader among host countries in terms of both migration volumes from Central Asia, and positive migration attitudes. The EDB Integration Barometer has shown that the largest amount of people from Central Asian countries would like to come to Russia not only for work, but also for study and permanent residence. Karabchuk says that people in Russia have already adapted to the crisis and this also restores Russia's popularity as a migration destination. Both Russia and labour exporting countries need migration from Central Asia. The research states that Russia receives labour it needs while Central Asian countries get an opportunity to partially solve their unemployment problems and support living standards of their populations. However, the authors believe that a more thoughtful and balanced migration policy is needed to minimise risks and maximise benefits.