Kommersant: Migrants return to stay
Despite a decline in migration in the early 2015, in the near fifteen years, as a minimum, the Russian labour market will remain the most attractive target for migrant workers from Central Asia. This is suggested in the study by Eurasian Development Bank, the United Nations Development Programme, the Higher School of Economics (HSE), and the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS). Because of Russia's practically zero unemployment rates, migration has adapted to the crisis and in the future the Russian labour market will remain popular because of inertia in migrants' selection of travel destinations.
Although migration to Russia from Central Asia slowed down to some extent in 2014, in the future Russia will remain one of the leading host countries for migrants from the region. These are the findings of the study Migration, Remittances and Human Development in Central Asian Countries undertaken by Eurasian Development Bank, the United Nations Development Programme, the Laboratory for Comparative Social Studies at the National Research University of the Higher School of Economics, and the RAS. The research was based on data provided by the Federal Migration Service of Russia, the central banks of Russia and Central Asian countries, the EDB Integration Barometer, the Eurasian Monitor, and the World Value Survey.
In the first place, the experts studied migration flows from Tajikistan, the Kyrgyz Republic and, partially, Uzbekistan. For these countries, the ratio of migrants' remittances to GDP is the highest: over 40% for Tajikistan, and around 30% for the Kyrgyz Republic. These are the world's maxima since 2011. The main trigger of migration is high unemployment in these countries and the lowest (on the regional scale) unemployment in Russia. Another factor is the significant disparity in income and remuneration between Russia and Central Asian countries. Migrants from the region occupy niches in the Russian labour market, which are not in demand or are in low demand with Russian citizens. The flip side of this process is that, as in many other developed countries, migrants are the first to lose jobs when demand for labour decreases during economic recessions.
Starting from 2010, migrant flows from, and remittances to, Central Asia have been growing, but in 2015 this growth gave way to a significant decline because of economic recession and the tougher enforcement of migration laws in Russia. However, the experts estimate that by the end of 2015 migration flows and trends (including those who would like to relocate not only to earn money, but also for studies and permanent residence) have regained their previous levels. Because of this adaptation to the crisis, the researchers suggested that the most probable scenario until 2030 would be the continuation of the trend.
An additional factor, which will stimulate migration to Russia, is migrants' judgements of their experience and linkages they have already acquired in this country during their previous work periods. Evgeniya Chernina from the Centre for Labour Market Studies at the National Research University of the Higher School of Economics shows in her report Choosing Migration Destinations: The Role of the Previous Experience that the value of social capital is in most cases higher than economic prospects in a given region. These results suggest inertia in migrants' selection of their travel destinations and for this reason past destinations, which were chosen because of high earnings (such as Moscow) and employment opportunities (regions beyond Moscow), will remain popular.