RBC EDB improves its forecast for Armenia's growth in 2015 to 2-2.5%

EDB concludes that industry and agriculture remain the main growth drivers and continue to compensate recession in trade and low growth in construction and services. "Given the continuing prospects in the external environment, the certain weakening of mining indicators, and the ongoing reduction in domestic demand, it is probable that economy will begin to slow down in Q2 2015, but GDP growth rates will be maintained (from 2-2.5% a year)," EDB analysts state.

However, they believe that the unfavourable external situation, including the reduction in money transfers from Russia, the weak growth in Europe, the low prices of exported metals, the high short-term foreign debt, and the overpriced national currency (the dram), will have, in real terms, a negative impact on the current account deficit and the exchange rate.

International financial institutions make varying forecasts for Armenia's GDP. The World Bank predicts Armenia's economy to grow by 0.8% in 2015, the Asian Development Bank by 1.2%, Moody's by 2.3%, Fitch by 1.5%, while the Eurasian Bank for Reconstruction and Development forecasts stagnation, and the IMF zero growth. The public budget expects Armenia's GDP to grow by 4.1% in 2015.