Central Asia’s economy is set to grow by more than 6.5% in 2026 and exceed $600 billion: EDB’s new Macroeconomic Outlook

Almaty, 15 June 2026. The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) has presented its Macroeconomic Outlook for 2026–2028. Analysts expect the Bank’s member countries to maintain positive growth, led by the Kyrgyz Republic (10.2%), Tajikistan (8.3%) and Uzbekistan (7.9%). Meanwhile, the combined GDP of all seven Bank member countries will reach $3.5 trillion, despite the slowdown in the global economy caused by the conflict in the Persian Gulf.

Key takeaways:

• Central Asia’s economic development is accelerating: the macro-region’s GDP growth will exceed 6.5% in 2026, and its economy will surpass the $600 billion mark for the first time.
•  The growth leaders in the EDB’s region of operations are: Kyrgyzstan (+10.2%), Tajikistan (+8.3%), Uzbekistan (+7.9%), Armenia (+6.0%) and Kazakhstan (+5.5%).
• Inflation in the region is expected to slow to 6.1% in 2026 from 6.5% a year earlier, supported by prudent monetary policy.

An external shock, but with mixed effects: rising energy prices due to the conflict in the Persian Gulf will support exporters (Russia and Kazakhstan), but increase inflationary pressure on importers.

More on the report:

The EDB’s new macroeconomic forecast includes an analysis of economic dynamics in the Bank’s member states at the start of 2026, as well as a forecast of key macroeconomic indicators for 2026 and the medium-term period of 2027–2028.

According to analysts at the Eurasian Development Bank, the aggregate GDP of the seven EDB member states is set to grow by 2.0% in 2026. Meanwhile, business activity will remain strong in most of the region’s economies. GDP growth in 2026 is forecast at 6.0% in Armenia, 1.3% in Belarus, 5.5% in Kazakhstan, 10.2% in the Kyrgyz Republic, 1.0% in Russia, 8.3% in Tajikistan and 7.9% in Uzbekistan.

World Economy

According to EDB analysts, the global economic situation changed dramatically in March 2026. The escalation of the conflict in the Persian Gulf led to rising oil prices, increased inflationary pressure and a slowdown in global economic activity. Under these conditions, US economic growth will slow to 1.7% in 2026. However, government spending and investment inflows into the oil and gas sector will mitigate the scale of the slowdown. The eurozone remains more vulnerable to the energy shock: according to our forecasts, its growth will slow to 0.9% in 2026, down from 1.4% in 2025. China’s economy will grow by 4.6% in 2026, driven by fiscal policy measures, increased investment in artificial intelligence and expanding electronics exports.

Inflation has accelerated significantly against the backdrop of the energy shock. Consumer price inflation is expected to reach 3.6% by the end of 2026 in the US and 3.0% in the eurozone. The Fed is likely to maintain a longer policy pause, while the ECB may raise rates to limit the entrenchment of the inflationary shock in expectations.

Eurasian region

The impact of the conflict in the Middle East on EDB member countries will vary depending on whether they are net exporters or net importers of energy resources.

For Russia and Kazakhstan, rising energy prices will, in the short term, contribute to higher export earnings and budget revenues. Higher oil and gas prices will support the rouble and tenge exchange rates in 2026. For Belarus, rising global demand for fertilisers may create additional opportunities to increase exports of potash and nitrogen fertilisers in value terms. The Bank’s other countries of operations, being net importers of energy resources, will primarily face inflationary risks associated with rising oil and food prices on global markets.

In 2026, the economy of the EDB’s region of operations will continue to grow steadily, with GDP growth forecast at 2.0%. The moderate aggregate growth rate is largely due to Russia’s GDP growth remaining at 1.0% for two consecutive years. At the same time, analysts forecast high growth rates for a number of Central Asian countries by the end of 2026, thanks to strong investment activity. In 2027, the region’s GDP growth rate may rise to 2.4%, primarily due to an acceleration in economic activity in Russia and Belarus. Other countries in the region will maintain high growth rates close to current levels. In the absence of further shocks, we forecast a slowdown in inflation in the region to 6.1% in 2026 and 5.3% in 2027, following 6.5% in 2025, thanks to the prudent monetary policies of EDB member states’ monetary authorities. 

Key macroeconomic projections for EDB member states in 2026

Source: EDB analysts’ calculations.

Armenia

According to EDB forecasts, Armenia’s economic growth rate will remain high at 6.0% in 2026. The main drivers remain domestic consumer and investment demand, supported by government investment. Inflation is forecast to rise to 4.4% y/y in 2026, following 3.3% y/y in 2025, due to rising energy and food prices on global markets. The average annual exchange rate of the dram will strengthen to 376 drams per US dollar, against the backdrop of a recovery in exports and high tourist activity.

Belarus

In Belarus, economic growth is forecast at 1.3% in 2026 against a backdrop of rising real household incomes, positive investment trends, a gradual easing of credit conditions and an expansion in service exports. Inflation in Belarus will continue to slow and will not exceed the 7% target in 2026. This slowdown is linked to the strong exchange rate of the Belarusian rouble and administrative price controls. The average exchange rate of the Belarusian rouble in 2026 is forecast at 3.00 BYN/USD. The strengthening of the national currency will be driven by growth in service exports and the maintenance of high interest rates on household deposits.

Kazakhstan

EDB analysts expect Kazakhstan’s economy to maintain steady growth of 5.5% in 2026. One of the key drivers of GDP growth will be the expansion of manufacturing output, alongside construction, transport and trade. Inflation is forecast to fall to 9.7% by the end of 2026 against a backdrop of tight monetary conditions, a stronger tenge and stabilising consumer demand. According to EDB analysts’ forecasts, the average tenge exchange rate in 2026 will be 490 tenge per US dollar. The exchange rate will be supported by a high base rate and higher oil prices.

Kyrgyz Republic

In 2026, the economy of the Kyrgyz Republic will remain the region’s leader in terms of GDP growth, at 10.2%. This growth will be driven by increased investment in industry, the energy sector and housing construction. EDB analysts expect inflation to rise to 11.5% by the end of 2026, driven by mounting pressure on global food markets and rising global commodity prices. The average exchange rate of the som in 2026 is expected to be 88 soms per US dollar, supported by rising rates in the interbank credit market and measures by the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic aimed at smoothing sharp fluctuations in the exchange rate.

Russia

In Russia, economic growth is forecast at 1.0% in 2026. An improvement in the external trade environment will boost growth through increased export revenues. Inflation will slow to 5.3% by the end of 2026, but will remain above target due to a combination of heightened inflation expectations, rising regulated tariffs and wage pressure. EDB analysts expect a moderate weakening of the Russian rouble exchange rate to 79 roubles per US dollar by the end of 2026 and note the risk that the rouble may remain stronger than forecast if oil prices remain high.

Tajikistan

Tajikistan’s economy will maintain high GDP growth rates in 2026, at around 8.3%. This will be driven by strong consumer and investment activity. Inflation will remain within the NBT’s target range (5±2%) throughout the forecast period. The exchange rate will strengthen to an average of 9.5 somoni per US dollar in 2026. Growth in export revenues against a backdrop of high gold prices, as well as a further increase in remittances, will support the somoni exchange rate.

Uzbekistan

EDB analysts forecast that Uzbekistan’s GDP growth will accelerate to 7.9% in 2026. This will be driven by strong domestic demand, an upturn in investment activity and increased output in industry and construction. Inflation will continue to decline towards the Central Bank of Uzbekistan’s target 5%. This will be facilitated by tight monetary conditions and a strengthening of the exchange rate to an average of approximately 12,200 soums per US dollar in 2026. The national currency will be supported by an inflow of foreign investment and high volumes of remittances. 

EDB Forecast. Key macroeconomic indicators for the Bank’s member states (baseline scenario)

Growth in %, compared with the previous year, unless otherwise stated

Note: F – forecast. GDP at constant prices. End-of-period inflation. Average annual rate. Average annual exchange rate of national currencies against the US dollar.

Source: national authorities of EDB member states, EDB analysts’ calculations.

The Macroeconomic Outlook is available on the Bank’s website. 

Additional Information:

The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) is a multilateral development bank investing in Eurasia. For 20 years, the Bank has worked to strengthen and expand economic ties and foster comprehensive development in its member countries. By the end of December 2025, the EDB’s cumulative portfolio comprised 326 projects with a total investment of US $19,6 billion. Its portfolio consists principally of projects with an integration effect in transport infrastructure, digital systems, green energy, agriculture, manufacturing and mechanical engineering. The Bank adheres to the UN Sustainable Development Goals and ESG principles in its operations.

The EDB is implementing three mega-projects as part of its 2022–2026 Strategy: the Eurasian Transport Network, the Eurasian Agricultural Goods Distribution System and the Central Asian Water and Energy Complex. 

The EDB Media Centre:

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