Macroeconomic Review – Eurasian Development Bank

The EDB Member countries’ operating conditions changed substantially in late March and early April 2020. Tightened quarantine responses to the COVID-19 pandemic in the major economies caused the global economic growth outlook to be reassessed for the worse. The unprecedented measures taken by the authorities of most of the Bank’s member countries to contain the spread of the disease, in addition to the fall of external demand and commodity prices, are exerting a considerable effect on economic activity in the region. Consequently, we have updated the projections of our member countries’ key macroeconomic indicators in the light of the above factors. 27 April 2020

The growth of the Tajik economy accelerated in 2019 amid households’ strong consumer activity and rising output in the mining and metallurgical complex and agriculture. The EDB projects the country’s GDP growth to keep within the 7–7.5% range in 2020–2022, despite the adverse effects of the coronavirus epidemic, as the budget’s social spending increases and metallurgy output grows. Later on, economic growth will trend towards its potential rate that we estimate at 7%. 13 April 2020

GDP growth in the Kyrgyz Republic accelerated to 4.5% in 2019, largely on account of production activity at the Kumtor mine, whose gold output exceeded the company’s targets. In other sectors, services and the construction industry were the key drivers of growth. 08 April 2020

In 2019, GDP growth in the Republic of Kazakhstan accelerated to 4.5% YoY, thereby exceeding even optimistic expectations. Strong consumer and investment demand, supported by a stimulative fiscal policy, helped offset the adverse effects of the external environment (a weak price situation in global goods and commodity markets and the global economic slowdown). Zero growth in the oil industry, after production was suspended at key oilfields for planned repairs, was also a constraint. 06 April 2020