Macroeconomic Review – Eurasian Development Bank

The growth of the Tajik economy accelerated in the first half of 2019 as households’ consumer activity increased and mining and agricultural output rose. The EDB projects the country’s GDP growth to slow down in 2020 as investment in the energy industry declines somewhat. Later on, economic growth will trend towards its potential rate that we estimate at 7%, the highest level across the EDB Member States. 06 December 2019

Armenia’s economic growth accelerated in the first half of 2019 as household consumer activity and the mining industries recovered. The EDB projects Armenia’s GDP to grow by 6.5% over 2019, more than in 2018 (5.2%), driven among other reasons by the preceding year’s low base in the mining industry. In 2020 and 2021, economic growth will trend towards its potential rate that we estimate at about 5%. It may increase as the government implements its business climate improvement initiatives. 06 December 2019

The acceleration of economic activity in the first half of 2019 resulted from increased production at the Kumtor gold mine. This was also a key factor behind the increase of net physical exports. Rising real household incomes supported domestic consumer demand, while collective consumption limited GDP growth. Investment in fixed capital also promoted the expansion of economic activity, while the decrease of inventory stocks resulted from a high base effect 04 December 2019

In the first half of 2019, GDP growth accelerated to 4.1% YoY, driven by recovering output in metallurgy and expanding consumer and investment demand. It was constrained by an oil extraction decrease that resulted from a complete work stoppage (for planned repairs) on the Kashagan oil field 29 November 2019