Macroeconomic Review – Eurasian Development Bank

The countries in the Bank’s region of operations have been hit by widescale social and economic shocks this year due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The Bank forecasts its member states’ aggregated GDP to contract by 3.8% in 2020 after a 1.7% increase in the previous year. The economy of Armenia will experience a 6.4% decline; the Belarus economy 1.5%; the Kazakhstan economy 3.0%; the Kyrgyzstan economy 7.5%; and the Russian economy 4%. In Tajikistan, economic growth will slow to 4.5%, down from 7.5% in 2019. 03 December 2020

The Kyrgyz economy faced challenging external economic conditions in the first half of this year. The COVID‑19 pandemic resulted in an unprecedented decline in global business activity and volume of international trade. Lockdown restrictions considerably weakened consumer and investment demand and fostered a slowdown in inflation along with a fall in energy prices. These conditions compelled monetary regulators in both developed and developing countries to ease their monetary policy, while fiscal bodies unveiled large-scale anti-crisis packages to help individuals and business. 04 November 2020

The Kazakh economy faced challenging external economic conditions in the first half of this year. The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in an unprecedented decline in global economic activity and volume of international trade. Lockdown restrictions weakened consumer and investment demand considerably and fostered a slowdown in inflation along with a fall in energy prices. These conditions compelled monetary regulators in both developed and developing countries to ease their monetary policy, while fiscal bodies unveiled large-scale anti-crisis packages to help individuals and business. 30 October 2020

Armenia's economy experienced a 5.7% YoY contraction in the first half of 2020 (in 2019, a 7.6% increase). Both domestic and external demand affected by the COVID-19 pandemic drove the decline in real GDP. The EDB projects Armenian GDP to decrease by 3.5% in 2020 overall. Shrinking consumer demand resulting from lower income, including remittances received from abroad, wages and the employment rate, as well as a decline in investment activity amid the restrictions imposed due to the pandemic and growing uncertainty, will be behind the negative trend. 26 October 2020