All publications – Eurasian Development Bank

This Special Report examines the pass-through effect of the exchange rate on inflation in member countries of the Eurasian Development Bank. Special attention is paid to assessing pass-through effect changes that occurred in recent years and to analyzing asymmetric and non-linear relationships between exchange rates and inflation in the region’s countries. The results obtained confirm the exchange rates’ significance for inflation movements in EDB economies. 25 June 2019

For the second consecutive year, Armenia remains the fastest-growing EAEU economy. In 2018, it grew by 5.2% after 7.5% the year before. The main factors behind the slowdown in its economic activity were the more moderate growth of household consumption than in 2017 and a decline of consumption in the public sector. 22 May 2019

In 2018, Kazakh GDP grew by 4.1%, supported by increased oil production and a favorable price situation in the world energy market. Revival of credit activity fostered expansion in consumer and investment demand. Separate sectors’ contribution to overall economic growth changed during the year. In the 1st half of 2018, the GDP increase was driven by high rates of growth in oil production and the manufacturing sectors. In the 2nd half of 2018, industry reduced its contribution to GDP growth while trade turnover and construction activity growth accelerated 22 May 2019

In 2018, the Russian economy grew at its highest rate since 2012. Higher net exports were the main factor behind accelerated growth. Consumer and investment activity remained positive contributors to economic growth. We expect Russia’s GDP growth to slow temporarily, constrained by the increased tax load and the impact of the key rate increase in late 2018. Increased investment expenditures of the federal budget and gradual normalization of monetary policy from 2nd half of 2019 will foster a mid-term economic recovery to the potential rate, that we estimate at 2% per annum 21 May 2019