All publications – Eurasian Development Bank

The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) published its Macroeconomic Forecast with projections for the economic development of its member states for 2021 and the medium term. The review states that, at the beginning of this year, the global economy started to steadily recover. The Global PMI Composite Output Index remains above the 50-point threshold and amounted to 53.2 p.p. in February 2021. The Bank’s analysts note that recovery will be proceeding at an uneven pace, with manufacturing remaining the driver, while services continuing to struggle due to persisting constraints. 31 March 2021

The countries in the Bank’s region of operations have been hit by widescale social and economic shocks this year due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The Bank forecasts its member states’ aggregated GDP to contract by 3.8% in 2020 after a 1.7% increase in the previous year. The economy of Armenia will experience a 6.4% decline; the Belarus economy 1.5%; the Kazakhstan economy 3.0%; the Kyrgyzstan economy 7.5%; and the Russian economy 4%. In Tajikistan, economic growth will slow to 4.5%, down from 7.5% in 2019. 03 December 2020

Amid the COVID-19 pandemic policymakers now face the dilemma of whether to stimulate infrastructure development by raising debt, which may reduce future flexibility, or to strengthen their fiscal positions. In order to shed light on this issue, the present study analysed an optimal debt level, taking into account countries’ institutional characteristics. 30 November 2020

The Kyrgyz economy faced challenging external economic conditions in the first half of this year. The COVID‑19 pandemic resulted in an unprecedented decline in global business activity and volume of international trade. Lockdown restrictions considerably weakened consumer and investment demand and fostered a slowdown in inflation along with a fall in energy prices. These conditions compelled monetary regulators in both developed and developing countries to ease their monetary policy, while fiscal bodies unveiled large-scale anti-crisis packages to help individuals and business. 04 November 2020