October 2020. Republic of Armenia: trends and forecasts
26 October 2020
Armenia's economy experienced a 5.7% YoY contraction in the first half of 2020 (in 2019, a 7.6% increase). Both domestic and external demand affected by the COVID-19 pandemic drove the decline in real GDP. The EDB projects Armenian GDP to decrease by 3.5% in 2020 overall. Shrinking consumer demand resulting from lower income, including remittances received from abroad, wages and the employment rate, as well as a decline in investment activity amid the restrictions imposed due to the pandemic and growing uncertainty, will be behind the negative trend.
Armenia's economy experienced a 5.7% YoY contraction in the first half of 2020 (in 2019, a 7.6% increase). Both domestic and external demand affected by the COVID-19 pandemic drove the decline in real GDP. The EDB projects Armenian GDP to decrease by 3.5% in 2020 overall. Shrinking consumer demand resulting from lower income, including remittances received from abroad, wages and the employment rate, as well as a decline in investment activity amid the restrictions imposed due to the pandemic and growing uncertainty, will be behind the negative trend.
In 2021–2022, the economy is projected to recover at 7–9% per year, driven by increased remittances to the country and increased prices of exports (in particular, ore and metal) as the economic situation in the world normalizes, as well as by stimulative fiscal and monetary policies.