October 2020. Republic of Tajikistan: trends and forecasts
26 October 2020
The coronavirus pandemic has exercised a considerable adverse effect on the Tajik economy. Its growth decelerated to 3.5% YoY in the first half of 2020 (after 7.5% in 2019). The consequences of the disease outbreak, namely direct restrictions on the operation of enterprises and a weakening of demand, mostly affected the non-productive sector and, particularly, trade and paid services (5.2% and 20.0% YoY declines, respectively). The productive sector was less affected, with industrial and agricultural output increasing by 9.2% and 5.5% YoY, respectively.
The coronavirus pandemic has exercised a considerable adverse effect on the Tajik economy. Its growth decelerated to 3.5% YoY in the first half of 2020 (after 7.5% in 2019). The consequencesof the disease outbreak, namely direct restrictions on the operation of enterprises and a weakening of demand, mostly affected the non-productive sector and, particularly, trade and paid services (5.2% and 20.0% YoY declines, respectively). The productive sector was less affected, with industrial and agricultural output increasing by 9.2% and 5.5% YoY, respectively.
The EDB expects the country’s GDP growth to stay positive in 2020, at 3.2%. Stabilizing factors such as the resilience of the country’s export revenues (largely on account of greater exports of metals) may help Tajikistan avoid a deeper decline in the figure. Fiscal and monetary policies will also be supportive of the economy. In 2021 and 2022, the improvement of the global economic situation will foster a recovery of national GDP growth to 8.6% and 7.7%, respectively.