EEC and EDB to work jointly on an economic forecasting framework for the Eurasian Economic Space
St. Petersburg, 20 June 2013. — Eurasian Development Bank’s (EDB) Centre for Integration Studies, jointly with the Macroeconomic Policy Department of the Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC), has started a work cycle under the project of building a system of SES macroeconomic policy analysis and forecasting. This project is to continue close and long-term cooperation between the two international organisations in Northern and Central Eurasia.
Its objective is to create analytical tools for SES economic policy, as well as social and economic development review. A framework of macroeconomic high-level models would enable modelling the effects of macroeconomic policies, taking consistent measures, analysing the response to general and SES country-specific risks and shocks, as well as preparing substantiated scenario-based projections taking into account various economic policy options. The selected model type——dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models (DSGE) ——is widely used by international financial institutions and national governments.
«The modelling framework is a powerful and ready-to-use instrument to be applied for the purposes of SES countries’ monetary and fiscal policy analysis and forecasting. It will also serve as an instrument to evaluate the pattern of SES countries’ economic integration,» says Igor Finogenov, Chairman of EDB’s Management Board.
«Developing and implementing agreed macroeconomic policies in the SES in particular involve coordination of actions at the national and supranational levels. These actions should be sufficiently grounded and based on high quality calculations. EDB won the tender announced by the Commission to implement the project. The model apparatus will be used to estimate the effects of various options of macroeconomic policies, inter alia, in the environment of current global economic instability. We also see room for using it to assess the prospects of policy coordination. It is a powerful means to support the decision-making process and formulate recommendations within the EEC,» comments Tatiana Valovaya, Member of the Panel (Minister) on main areas of EEC integration and macroeconomics.
The modelling framework to be built as a result of the project implementation will be jointly used by EDB and EEC. Further on, projections will be made with detailed scenarios prepared for countries’ economic development, and with monetary and fiscal policy recommendations provided to the managing bodies.
By now, experts of EDB’s Centre for Integration Studies and the EEC have already held a workshop, which ended with a presentation and discussion with the academia of the output of the first stage of the work——a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for Russia.
Additional Information
Eurasian Development Bank is an international financial institution founded by Russia and Kazakhstan in January 2006 with the mission to facilitate the development of market economies, sustainable economic growth, and the expansion of mutual trade and other economic ties in its member states. EDB’s charter capital exceeds US $1.5 billion. The member states of the Bank are the Republic of Armenia, the Republic of Belarus, the Republic of Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, the Russian Federation, and the Republic of Tajikistan.
Read more about EDB at https://www.eabr.org
The Eurasian Economic Commission is a permanent regulatory body of the Customs Union and the Single Economic Space of Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia. The Commission has operated since 2012. Its main task is to ensure conditions for the CU and SES operation and development, to elaborate economic policy initiatives within the framework of the CU and SES, and to create preconditions for the Eurasian Economic Union formation by 2015.
Read more about the EEC at https://www.eurasiancommission.org
For additional information please contact EEC media centre:
Valery Petrov:
Stanislaw Zuev: