Irtysh calls for dialogue: addressing cross-border challenges requires joint action by China, Kazakhstan and Russia
The water resources of the transboundary Irtysh River basin are becoming increasingly important for China, Kazakhstan and Russia. High economic growth and a growing population in the basin are boosting the demand for water. The Eurasian Development Bank’s new report titled “The Irtysh River Basin: Transboundary Challenges and Practical Solutions” presents the results of diagnostics and forecasts regarding the state of water resources in the basin, outlines the positions of the three countries, and proposes practical solutions, including investment measures. The key recommendations focus on strengthening bilateral cooperation, developing soft infrastructure, and creating a multimodal transport corridor connecting Russia, Kazakhstan and China.
Almaty, February 2025.
The Irtysh is the world’s longest transboundary tributary river, with a length of 4,248 kilometres. Together with the Ob, another major river, the Irtysh forms the longest waterway in Russia, the second longest in Asia, and the seventh longest in the world. Flowing through the territories of Kazakhstan, Russia and China, the river holds significant importance for each of these countries, closely linking their interests.
Scheme of the Irtysh River Basin
Source: EDB
In China, water resources in the upper Irtysh River are crucial for the development of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (XUAR). XUAR’s population increased from 15.2 million in 1990 to 25.87 million in 2022, while its GRP per capita rose 28-fold over the same period. The region continues to develop at a rapid pace and remains highly vulnerable to water stress. In the future, XUAR’s demand for water, food and electricity is expected to multiply. Leading research institutes anticipate that water withdrawals could more than triple from the current 1.5–2.0 km3 to 7 km3 per year, out of an average annual natural flow of 8.3 km3.
In Kazakhstan, the Irtysh and its tributaries support almost 30% of the country’s population. The basin produces approximately 45% of the nation’s total agricultural output. The Irtysh HPP Cascade contributes 10% of the country’s total electricity generation (80% of its hydropower). The potential risks associated with China’s increased withdrawal of water are significant. In response, Kazakhstan is strengthening its bilateral engagement with China and Russia. At the national level, it is considering the construction of new reservoirs and hydroelectric power plants, alongside plans to implement water-saving technologies.
For Russia, the active water policies of the upstream countries, Kazakhstan and China, are of particular concern. If China withdraws excessive amounts of water, there is a risk that the flow from Kazakhstan will diminish. Projected changes in the quantity and quality of water resources over the next decade pose serious challenges to the socio-economic development of Omsk and the surrounding Omsk Municipal District. These areas account for 80% of total water withdrawals and 90% of water usage in the region. In low-water years, water scarcity could extend across the entire river.
The transboundary nature of the Irtysh River necessitates a strategic partnership and cooperation in its basin between China, Kazakhstan and Russia. Effective water management requires the development of practical cooperation mechanisms that align with shared interests. These efforts should contribute to economic integration and the resolution of social and environmental challenges across the basin.
First, it is proposed to expand bilateral cooperation between Kazakhstan and Russia, as well as between Kazakhstan and China, including the incorporation of key provisions from international conventions into national water legislation and intergovernmental agreements. Cooperation programmes could aim to:
- ensure international navigation on the Irtysh River and further along the Ob River;
- control water pollution;
- regulate the safe use of water bodies; and
- improve the efficiency and safety of water use during floods, low-water periods and droughts.
- In the future, this approach will create the necessary legal framework and facilitate the signing of a trilateral agreement between the countries.
Second, there should be a focus on developing soft infrastructure as part of bilateral initiatives. It would be advisable to:
- establish an international integrated monitoring system, ensuring bilateral cooperation programmes are informed by a unified and transparent river flow monitoring system, with data available to all parties;
- develop a coordinated training and retraining system; and
- conduct interdisciplinary research on water resources in the transboundary Irtysh River basin at major institutes, involving experts from Kazakhstan, China and Russia.
Third, particular attention should be given to the coordinated operation of existing hydraulic structures (hydropower plants, dams, reservoirs, irrigation canals, water supply systems, etc.) and the planning of future facilities. Priority projects should aim to ensure stable water supplies in the Irtysh basin, without negatively impacting water resources in other countries. Such projects include:
- construction of the Shulbinsk HPP (Phase 2) in Kazakhstan;
- construction of the Semipalatinsk HPP in Kazakhstan;
- reconstruction and modernisation of the Satpayev Irtysh-Karaganda Canal in Kazakhstan; and
- construction of the Krasnogorosk hydrosystem near Omsk in Russia.
Fourth, a strategic objective is to establish a fully operational multimodal transport corridor connecting Russia, Kazakhstan and China, leveraging the navigation potential of the Ob-Irtysh basin. The Ob and Irtysh rivers could link the Northern Sea Route and the Silk Road, integrating Eurasian transport corridors into the global transport system. The new multimodal corridor would provide landlocked Central Asian countries and China’s north-western regions with access to inland Russian regions and, further, to the Arctic Ocean.
This initiative is of interest to all the countries within the Irtysh basin and could serve as a foundation for promoting trilateral cooperation. A key condition for the integrated use of the Irtysh corridor’s water transport potential is the establishment of trilateral agreements (between China, Kazakhstan and Russia) on regulating the Irtysh water regime during the navigation period and the creation of an international navigation agency. Such cooperation could facilitate the development of interstate mechanisms for coordinated water management in the Irtysh basin.
The report is based on research conducted by leading institutions in Kazakhstan (the Geography and Water Security Institute of the Science Committee at the Ministry of Science and Higher Education) and Russia (the Institute of Water and Environmental Problems, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences), strategic documents and concepts, materials from bilateral meetings, and discussions with representatives of relevant government agencies.
Additional Information:
The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) is a multilateral development bank investing in Eurasia. For more than 18 years, the Bank has worked to strengthen and expand economic ties and foster comprehensive development in its member countries. The EDB's charter capital totals US $7 billion. Its portfolio consists principally of projects with an integration effect in transport infrastructure, digital systems, green energy, agriculture, manufacturing and mechanical engineering. The Bank adheres to the UN Sustainable Development Goals and ESG principles in its operations.
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