The EDB Macroeconomic Review: the region exhibits strong growth at the beginning of the year, driven by increased industrial production and domestic demand
Almaty, 12 April 2024. The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) has released its latest Macroeconomic Review for the Bank’s six member states.
EDB analysts observe that despite the challenging foreign economic environment, the region where the Bank operates continues to display robust growth. In early 2024, short-term economic activity indicators demonstrated sustained high GDP growth rates.
In January and February 2024, economic activity in Armenia accelerated to 13.6% YoY, propelled by a dynamic increase in industrial output.
Belarus’s economy grew by 4% YoY during the same period, driven, among other things, by growth in industrial production and retailing.
Kazakhstan’s economy expanded by 4.2% YoY in January and February 2024, fuelled by capital investment.
The Kyrgyz Republic experienced a GDP growth rate surge to 8.6% YoY in January–February 2024, largely due to intensified investment activity, which spiked to 55.0% YoY.
In Russia, industrial production remains the primary driver of economic growth. In January–February 2024, the nation’s GDP grew by 6.0% YoY.
Tajikistan maintains high growth rates, supported by strong domestic demand in January–February 2024, driven by both consumption and investment.
Domestic demand in these countries is propelled by national projects, such as increased public investment in Armenia, import substitution programmes in Belarus and Russia, and the development of mechanical engineering in Kazakhstan and energy sectors in the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan. The evolving dynamics of domestic demand facilitate the advancement of production and deeper specialisation of the economies. Enhanced regional economic cooperation will expedite industry development, improving the overall productivity of the region.
The Macroeconomic Review indicates a decreasing risk of recession in the global economy but highlights that the global market situation remains tense. The US will continue to outpace Europe in terms of economic expansion over the coming year. Although China witnessed a rebound in business activity at the beginning of the year, the pace of lending is slowing and public investment is replacing private investment. The scope for rate cuts in the US and Europe remains very limited due to persistently high inflationary pressures.
Additional Information:
The Macroeconomic Review is a regular publication by the EDB, providing a roundup of the macroeconomic situation and projecting near-term developments in the member countries. The review also contains detailed statistics on key macroeconomic indicators.
The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) is an international financial institution investing in Eurasia. For more than 18 years, the Bank has worked to strengthen and expand economic ties and foster comprehensive development in its member countries. The EDB's charter capital totals US $7 billion. Its portfolio consists principally of projects with an integration effect in transport infrastructure, digital systems, green energy, agriculture, manufacturing and mechanical engineering. The Bank adheres to the UN Sustainable Development Goals and ESG principles in its operations.
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