The EDB presented its own model of macroeconomic analysis and forecasting of the Uzbekistan economy
By the time Uzbekistan joined the EDB member countries, the Bank had developed and implemented a modern modelling toolkit that allows for in-depth analysis of macroeconomic trends and medium-term forecasts for the new EDB member.
The EDB's first macroeconomic forecast for the Republic of Uzbekistan will be presented in June 2025.
Almaty, May 21, 2025. The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) has published a working paper "Macroeconomic model for analysis and forecasting of the Uzbekistan economy." The new modelling toolkit helps analyse and forecast macroeconomic trends in Uzbekistan. Its integration into the EDB's simulation model complex makes it possible to more accurately and comprehensively forecast the economic development of the Bank's region of operations, while taking into account close cross-country relationships.
The EDB has joined the ranks of leading international institutions involved in the analysis and forecasting of the Uzbekistan economy. This will have a positive impact on strengthening the mechanisms for making substantiated economic decisions, while Uzbekistan will receive an additional objective source of economic assessments and scenarios. The EDB's expert activity is implemented in collaboration with government agencies and other international development institutions, which makes it particularly valuable and applicable.
The model developed by the EDB has sufficient flexibility and is, therefore, convenient for analysing the economy of Uzbekistan; besides, it maintains a high level of theoretical rigor. The key features of the model include: 1) analysis of the impact of global, regional and internal shocks on the economy of Uzbekistan; 2) assessment of the impact of fiscal, monetary and exchange rate policies on key macroeconomic indicators; 3) generation of scenario forecasts for the medium-term development of Uzbekistan's economy; 4) assessment of risks faced by macroeconomic stability.
"Acting in the interests of its member countries, the EDB is constantly developing modern tools of macroeconomic analysis. The developed model takes into account cross-country relationships and makes it possible to assess the way the economic processes in a particular country impact the other countries. This is especially important for the developing and closely connected economies of the region. The model created for Uzbekistan contains many equations describing both internal and external economic relationships. In addition to GDP, inflation, the Uzbek sum exchange rate, and the interest rate, the model takes into account fiscal policy parameters, wage levels, net cash inflows, and volumes of trade with other countries, which significantly expands the possibilities for analysis and forecasting. The EDB will release its first forecast for Uzbekistan in a month," Evgeny Vinokurov, Deputy Chairman of the EDB'S Management Board and Chief Economist of the Bank, commented on the development of the new model.
In April 2025, President of the Republic of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev signed a law on Uzbekistan's accession to the Agreement Establishing the Eurasian Development Bank (EADB). Uzbekistan became the seventh member of the Bank and the third largest shareholder with a 10% equity stake.
Additional Information:
The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) is a multilateral development bank investing in Eurasia. For more than 18 years, the Bank has worked to strengthen and expand economic ties and foster comprehensive development in its member countries. By 2025, the EDB’s cumulative portfolio comprised 305 projects with a total investment of US $16.5 billion. The Bank's portfolio consists principally of projects with an integration effect in transport infrastructure, digital systems, green energy, agriculture, manufacturing, and mechanical engineering. The Bank’s operations are guided by the UN Sustainable Development Goals and ESG principles.
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