EDB Centre for Integration Studies: The majority of citizens approve of the Eurasian Economic Union, yet the number of those indifferent to it is growing

St. Petersburg, 25 October 2016. A survey of integration preferences among the CIS' population in 2016 has shown that the Eurasian economic integration is still supported by people in the EAEU member states and their neighbouring countries. Overall, the level of support exceeds 60%. These are the findings of the EDB Integration Barometer, a yearly research conducted by Eurasian Development Bank's (EDB) Centre for Integration Studies. In 2016, 8,500 people from seven CIS countries – Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Moldova, Russia, and Tajikistan – took part in the survey.

In Belarus, public support for Eurasian integration increased insignificantly over the year, from 60% to 63%. In other member countries, the population's support for participation in the EAEU declined: from 86% to 81% in the Kyrgyz Republic, from 80% to 74% in Kazakhstan, from 78% to 69% in Russia, and from 56% to 46% in Armenia. Almost in all above instances the decrease was due to an increase in the number of those who were indifferent, while in Armenia it was also triggered by an increase in the number of negative responses (by 5 percentage points).

"The Eurasian integration's 'honeymoon' has come to an end," Evgeny Vinokurov, Director of the Centre for Integration Studies, states. "People begin to assess increasingly often the current condition and specific results of integration, and how it influences their lives."

The experts point out separately to a rather high level of approval of Eurasian integration in Tajikistan – the most realistic candidate for EAEU membership. In this country, 68% of respondents said they would support its potential joining the EAEU in 2016 (compared to 72% in 2015). This level of support creates comfortable conditions for the potential political decision.

Figure 1

The question asked in the EAEU member countries: It is known that Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic and Russia formed the Eurasian Economic Union (in effect, a single market for the five countries). What do you think about this decision?

The question asked in the non-EAEU member countries: It is known that Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic and Russia formed the Eurasian Economic Union (in effect, a single market for the five countries). Do you believe that our country should also join this union?

In 2016, the respondents in the EAEU member states were asked about their attitudes towards free movements of citizens within the EAEU (including labour migration), the expansion of the EAEU, the entering into a free trade and investment agreement between the EAEU and the EU, the possible introduction of a single currency, and the creation of a common broadcasting company. Over a half of respondents answered positively on almost all questions (excluding the introduction of a single currency, the opinions on which in Armenia and Belarus were different). The most favoured initiatives in the EAEU countries are "the permission of free movement of EAEU citizens within the union, with the possibility to live, work, study and do business anywhere in the EAEU countries" (70-87%), and "the entering into a free trade and investment agreement between the EAEU countries and the European Union" (68-82%).

In addition, in all the EAEU member countries the number of the respondents who believe that the CIS countries will converge in the next five years declined to some extent. The most palpable decrease was in Armenia (from 26% to 14%) and the Kyrgyz Republic (from 70% to 60%). At the same time, in the Kyrgyz Republic, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan the share of "optimists" is higher than that of "pessimists." In Moldova, the yearly increase in the optimistic answers to this question was statistically significant (from 29% to 38%).

The opinions of the CIS countries' citizens about friendliness or hostility on the part of other countries are also of interest. In 2016, an average of 82% of the respondents from Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Moldova, Russia and Tajikistan considered neighbouring CIS countries as friendly. The lowest trust for post-Soviet countries was demonstrated in Moldova (65%, however compared to 58% in 2015) and Armenia (a decrease from 87% to 72% over the year). That said, while in Moldova the tendency for downgrading the friendliness of other CIS countries, which began several years ago, has shifted to some extent, Armenia's indicator was the lowest over five years of observations.

In the CIS region, Russia remains the friendliest country as viewed by the respondents from the seven countries under consideration. As before, the highest result for this question was recorded in the Kyrgyz Republic (89%), Tajikistan (82%, despite a decrease by 8 percentage points from the previous year), Belarus (82%), and Kazakhstan (81%). In Armenia, there was a noticeable decline in the perceptions of Russia as a friendly country, from 86% in 2015 to 69% in 2016.

For Russian citizens, the friendliest countries are Belarus (65%), Kazakhstan (51%), China (41%), and Armenia (35%). An interesting fact is that, compared to the previous year, the perceptions of Ukraine and Georgia as friendly countries grew twofold, to 8% and 16% respectively. This indicator has grown (as against to falling down) for the first time since 2012.

EDB experts emphasise that the EDB Integration Barometer provides valuable information about citizens' preferences of products from neighbouring countries, labour migration, and social and cultural ties. For example, the survey also studied whether people had actual communications with family members, relatives, friends and colleagues in other countries. Approximately 60% of the respondents said they had personal connections in post-Soviet countries. This confirms that the CIS region remains highly integrated in social terms.

The research has been conducted by the EDB Centre for Integration Studies since 2012 in partnership with Eurasian Monitor, an international research agency.

The full version of the publication is available online.

Additional Information

Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) is an international financial institution founded by Russia and Kazakhstan in January 2006 with the mission to facilitate the development of market economies, sustainable economic growth, and the expansion of mutual trade and other economic ties in its member states. EDB's charter capital totals US $7 billion. The member states of the Bank are the Republic of Armenia, the Republic of Belarus, the Republic of Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, the Russian Federation, and the Republic of Tajikistan.

The Centre for Integration Studies is a specialist research centre of Eurasian Development Bank. The Centre organises research and prepares reports and recommendations on regional economic integration. Read more about the Centre’s projects and publications at https://eabr.org/analytics/.

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