A Comprehensive Assessment of the Macroeconomic Effects of Various Forms of the Deep Economic Integration of Ukraine with Member States of the Customs Union and the Common Economic Space

• Executive Summary of the Report (eng)

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• Main Conclusions (rus)

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• Presentation (rus)

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• Executive Summary of the Report (45 pages) (rus)

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• Full Version of the Report (rus)

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The study indicates that development of the largest economies within the post-Soviet area (Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan) is associated with structural changes. Potential for significant economic growth based on raw exports and outdated processing industries is nearing exhaustion. For this reason, the growth rates required by the population can be achieved only by modifying the overall structure of the economy, developing the manufacturing sector and service industries. For the first time in the last 20 years, the study formulates an inter-industry set of analytical forecasting models for the region’s four leading countries. The merit of the work lies in the fact that it applies a single methodology to the inter-industry analysis. Taking such an approach has allowed the authors to model common economic dynamics and structural changes, as well as to obtain sound assessments of possible integration scenarios throughout the post-Soviet area.

The Institute for National Economic Forecasting (Russian Academy of Sciences), the Institute for Economy and Forecasting (National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine) and the EDB Center for Integration Studies have carried out a joint study of the macroeconomic effects of various forms of economic integration of Ukraine with the member states of the Customs Union and the Common Economic Space.

The aim of the study was to define the macroeconomic effect created by the establishment of the Customs Union and the Common Economic Space between Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan, to define the current situation and prospects for development of integration links between Ukraine and the member states of the Customs Union, and to identify the most efficient forms and directions for the development of integration processes between the four countries.

A Comprehensive Assessment of the Macroeconomic Effects of Various Forms of Deep Economic Integration of Ukraine with the Member States of the Customs Union and the Common Economic Space within the EurAsEU (documents from the Moscow-Kiev—Minsk-Almaty teleconference bridge, January 24, 2012).