Kazakhstan

EDB investment portfolio

01/11/2018

62 projects

$2 667.5 million

38.9% of the total


Kazakhstan is, along with Russia, the founder and largest member of Eurasian Development Bank, accounting for about a third of its charter capital (US $500 million).

Trends

GDP

The continuing favorable price environment on the world oil and metals markets is ensuring stable growth in the mining sectors and contributing to the recovery of domestic consumer demand. According to preliminary estimates, in 2Q 2018 GDP grew by 4.1% (+4.1% YoY in 1Q 2018). In 2018, the low base effect was exhausted, which partly ensured stable quarterly growth.

In 2Q 2018, the contribution of the industrial sector to GDP growth decreased somewhat, mainly due to a reduction in output in the water supply sector and a slowdown in growth in manufacturing industries. In the mining industry, the accelerating production trend continued (+5.8% compared with 2Q 2017). Also, there was a strengthening of growth in the services sector, partly reflecting the restoration of consumer confidence against a background of real income growth. Despite the fact that the construction sector’s contribution has decreased, it still provides support to the economy (+2.0% YoY).

On the expenditure side, net exports are supporting the economy. The increase in exports in real terms is being accompanied by a restoration of imports. Domestic demand on the part of households and the growth of investments are also making a positive contribution to GDP growth.

The consolidated leading indicator calculated by the EEC signals that in the first months of 3Q 2018 the attained level of economic activity will remain in place. Expectations suggest that the current level of business activity in the construction sector, trade and industry will continue. According to a survey conducted by the National Bank of Kazakhstan, economic agents do not expect economic activity to accelerate in 3Q 2018 and believe that the demand for final goods will grow at the current rate.

Inflation

On average in 2Q 2018, annual inflation was 6.2% and was within the target corridor of 5.0–7.0% for the end of 2018. During 2Q, food prices fell (mainly for vegetables), reaching the level of 4.2% YoY at the end of June 2018. Despite the increased volatility of the tenge exchange rate in April 2018 and the growth of excises for some goods, inflation in the non-food sector remained stable (8.4% YoY on average for 2Q). The effect of increasing excises on diesel fuel was partially offset by a decrease in gasoline prices given the excess supply. The price and tariff trends for services remain within the inflationary corridor, and at the end of June 2018 the annual price change in this consumer basket group was 5.5%.

According to a survey published by the National Bank of Kazakhstan, after some spike in April 2018 inflation expectations again began to slow down and, by the end of June 2018, stabilized at 5.9%, which in part underscores the level of confidence in the monetary policy pursued by the National Bank of Kazakhstan. In this context, the new increased exchange rate volatility in early August 2018 may also have a limited impact on inflation expectations, and the downward inflation trend is likely to slow down, but will remain within the targets.

External Sector

According to preliminary estimates, the trade surplus expanded against a background of depreciation of the tenge’s real exchange rate (–3.4% in comparison with 2Q 2017) and rising world prices for the country’s main export commodities. In 2Q 2018, the positive balance of goods and services amounted to USD 5.1 billion, which is 1.6-fold more than the surplus a year earlier. Exports of goods and services grew faster (+15.1% YoY), while nominal imports grew by 1.6% YoY. Increased nominal volumes of export earnings were accompanied by rising incomes for foreign direct investors, which increased by 36.0% compared with 2Q 2017. This factor limited the reduction of the current account deficit, which in 2Q 2018 amounted to USD 834.3 million (USD 1.4 billion a year earlier). In terms of financial account operations, the main inflow of capital was from foreign direct investment (USD 1.2 billion). Reserve assets (excluding assets of the National Fund of the Republic of Kazakhstan) as of July 1, 2018, amounted to USD 30.1 billion, which covers the financing needs for 8.2 months of imports of goods and services.

Fiscal Policy

In 1H 2018, the state budget saw a deficit of KZT 78.9 billion (KZT 1.1 trillion a year earlier). The improved level of public finances occurred against a backdrop of rising world prices for metals, which led to tax revenue plans being exceeded. An additional factor that contributed to the growth of state revenues consisted of measures taken to improve tax administration. In this regard, despite a decrease in the contribution of transfer payments, revenue grew by 4.8% compared with January–June 2017.

State budget expenditures increased by 9.6% YoY. Out of the total expenditure for 1H 2018, 57.0% was spent on the social sphere. The 2018 budget provides for financing within the framework of the president’s five social initiatives. In 1H 2018, funds were allocated from the state budget to support entrepreneurship and additional payments for teachers’ salaries.

The growth of public debt by 5.2% in 1H 2018 compared with 4Q 2017 was mainly provided by the issue of National Bank of Kazakhstan notes and government longterm treasury bonds. Government external debt has increased by 1.5% since early 2018, mainly due to an increase in the volume of Eurobonds (+2.6%) and loan proceeds from the Asian Development Bank (+1.5%).

Monetary Policy

In 2Q 2018, the base rate was reduced on two occasions, from 9.5% to 9.0% overall. At the same time, the monetary authorities signaled limited potential for a further easing of monetary conditions against a backdrop of an increased probability of inflationary risks from the external sector.

The average Tenge OverNight Index Average rate in 2Q 2018 was 8.29%. For more than a year now, it has stood at the level of the lower boundary of the interest rate corridor for the National Bank of Kazakhstan’s base rate, reflecting the excess liquidity in the system. In 2H 2018, the National Bank of Kazakhstan will consider narrowing the boundaries of the rate corridor.

By the end of 2Q 2018, key restructuring stages of the banking sector had been completed. In June 2018, the compression trend in the deposit base of individuals and corporates was interrupted (+1.2% compared with the beginning of the year). While the proportion of customer deposits in foreign currencies dropped to 44.1% as of July 1, 2018, compared with 47.6% at the beginning of 2018. The loan portfolio of banks so far has continued to decline, falling by 0.8% compared with the beginning of the year. The share of NPL fell to 8.8% by the end of June 2018. The volume of new loans in 2Q 2018 exceeded the level of the same period previous year by 30.3%. The average rate on loans to corporates in the domestic currency decreased from 13.2% in December 2017 to 11.7% in June 2018. 


07 November 2018
The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) made another offering of its tenge-denominated bonds at Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) for a total of KZT 20 billion.
12 October 2018
Amangeldy Issenov, Deputy Chairman of the Management Board at the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB), and Meirzhan Myrzaliyev, Deputy Akim (mayor) of Kostanay Region, signed a memorandum of understanding and cooperation at the Kostanay Invest 2018 Regional Investment Forum. The document envisions cooperation in the area of energy, mechanical engineering, infrastructure, agricultural processing, mining, and the manufacture of construction materials and food products
27 September 2018
Amangeldy Issenov, Deputy Chairman of the Management Board at the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB), took part in the official opening of the Nurly Zhol (Kazakhstan) – Khorgos (China) checkpoint. The event took place in the neutral territory between the borders of Kazakhstan and China
30 August 2018
The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) and ASIA AVTO Kazakhstan signed a loan agreement at the Moscow International Automobile Salon on 30 August 2018. The parties agreed on financing a full-cycle car assembly plant being built in Ust-Kamenogorsk in partnership with Russia’s AvtoVAZ
06 August 2018
The net profits of the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) amounted to US $37.542 million in the first half of 2018, while the target fixed in the bank's strategy until 2022 for the whole year is at US $32 million
25 July 2018
The EDB announces the completion of the technical issue of 001P-01 bond of the nominal value of RUB 10 billion at the Moscow Stock Exchange under the programme (identification number 4-00002-L-001P-02E of 14 June 2018). The coupon rate is 7.60% per annum, the yield is 7.74%. The bond maturity is 1.5 years
19 July 2018
The Council of the Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development (EFSD), based on the outcomes of voting by correspondence, has approved the EFSD Annual Report 2017. The EFSD Annual report includes information on the activities undertaken by the Eurasian Development Bank in its capacity of the EFSD Resources Manager and related to manging and administering the EFSD resources in 2017
17 July 2018
Andrey Beliyaninov, Chairman of the Management Board of the Eurasian Development Bank, will talk at the Financing the Real Sector of the Economy Business Forum to take place on 19 July in Moscow
16 July 2018
Applications are invited for enrolment to the International Eurasian Integration School 2018 titled The Eurasian Economic Union: Contouring the Future. The school has been launched by the Russian International Affairs Council, the Alexander Gorchakov Public Diplomacy Fund, the Eurasian Economic Commission, and the Eurasian Development Bank
25 June 2018
The Council of the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) approved the Bank’s new mid-term strategy for 2018-2022. The meeting was chaired by Bakytzhan Sagintayev, Prime Minister of the Republic of Kazakhstan and Chair of the EDB Council

Almaty Headquarters

Address:
220 Dostyk ave., Almaty, 050051, Republic of Kazakhstan

Astana Representative Office

Address:
Astanalyk Business Centre, 11th floor, 33 Kunayev St., Astana, 010000, Republic of Kazakhstan

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