Armenia

EDB investment portfolio

01/09/2018

11 projects

$185.3 million

2.7% of the total

EFSD investment portfolio

06/30/2017

4 projects

$512.2 million

9.3% of the total


Armenia became a full member of Eurasian Development Bank in April 2009. Its contribution to the Bank’s capital is US $100,000.

Trends

GDP

The Armenian economy continues to grow at a high rate. The country’s GDP increased by 9.6% YoY in 1Q 2018 (after growing by 11% YoY in the previous quarter). Both domestic and external factors continue to support growth.

Growing consumer demand amid increasing wages and double-digit growth in remittances from labor migrants significantly contributed to high economic growth in 1Q 2018. Retail trade turnover increased by 3.7% YoY in 1Q 2018.

Recovering external demand and the successful implementation of export support measures resulted in exports maintaining their major contribution to economic growth for three consecutive years. Exports in value terms increased by 34.4% YoY in 1Q. Economic activity is still restrained by increasing imports (+39% YoY in 1Q 2018) amid growing domestic demand.

The low base effect resulted in accelerated growth in the construction and agricultural sectors of 23% and 2.2% YoY, respectively. Despite growing external and domestic demand, the manufacturing sector exhibits an opposite trend where growth slowed to 8.2% in 1Q, compared with 16.2% in the same period a year earlier.

Positive economic development resulted in an improved Armenian sovereign rating outlook. In March, Moody’s confirmed its B1 long-term credit rating on Armenia’s debt in national and foreign currency, while changing its outlook from “stable” to “positive”.

Leading indicators calculated by the EEC indicate that a high level of economic activity continued in 2Q 2018. This is confirmed by such components of indicators as the amount of loans provided by banks to manufacturing companies and the amount of remittances from individuals.

Inflation

Growing economic activity in 1Q 2018 continued to exert inflationary pressure. As a result, 12-mo CPI amounted to 3.7% in March, close to the 4% target set by the Central Bank of Armenia. Consumer prices were under further pressure from fuel, tobacco and alcohol excise taxes which were increased in order to harmonize tax legislation across the EAEU countries.

Exchange Rate

The nominal effective exchange rate of the Armenian dram (AMD) continued to decrease. It was down by 4.9% YoY in 1Q 2018 (–4% in the previous quarter). The decrease is attributed to a weakened AMD against the EUR and RUB, which strengthened against the USD in 1Q 2018. The AMD real effective exchange rate decreased by 5% YoY in 1Q 2018 (–5.5% in the previous quarter), which continued to provide support to the price competitiveness of Armenian exports.

Economic recovery in countries which are key trading partners of Armenia supported the high growth in remittances of labor migrants. According to the Central Bank, the amount of remittances in USD terms increased by 14.5% YoY in 1Q 2018. Remittances from Russia were up by 22.1%.

Fiscal Policy

In 1Q 2018, Armenia’s budget deficit amounted to AMD 26.3 billion, compared to AMD 19.2 billion a year earlier. Budget spendings decreased by 2.6% YoY, mainly due to decreases in transfer payments (by 25.1%) and in purchases of goods and services (by 18.6%). At the same time, the decrease in revenues amounted to 5.4% YoY.

A new Tax Code is effective in Armenia as of January 1, 2018. It incorporates all regulations regarding taxation. Among its innovations, there is a progressive tax scale for personal income, as well as increased excise taxes for tobacco and alcohol products and liquid natural gas, which harmonize Armenia’s excise rates with those of other EAEU countries. The new code is generally aimed at simplifying business regulation and harmonizing tax legislation across EAEU countries.

The government is going to carry on with its fiscal consolidation policy in 2018. The budget deficit is intended to be decreased to 2.7% of GDP, compared to 4.7% of GDP in 2017.

The government debt increased last year, which led to significant 16.8% YoY growth in the cost of its servicing in 1Q 2018.

Armenia’s government debt continued to increase in 1Q 2018 to about USD 6.9 billion. The government debt has increased by USD 112.5 million YTD, mainly due to an increase in government borrowings (which have increased by USD 70.5 million YTD).

Monetary Policy

The refinancing rate stayed unchanged at 6% in 1Q 2018. Given the accelerating inflation, an unchanged refinancing rate effectively implies a still expansionary monetary policy and that the Central Bank plans to stabilize inflation near the target level. According to the Central Bank, moreover, it may reduce the stimulatory effect of its monetary policy in the medium term amid increasing inflationary pressure caused by domestic demand.

Decreasing interest rates on bank loans (by 3.6 p.p. and 3.3 p.p. YoY in March 2018 for short-term and long-term loans in AMD, respectively) further encouraged lending. There was an acceleration of growth in loans provided to both households (26.3% in March 2018 vs. 22.1% in December 2017) and businesses (39.4% in March 2018 vs. 33.5% in December 2017).

Interest rates on loans in USD and in AMD still differ considerably (by some 5 p.p.), which helps to reduce the share of bank deposits in USD. As of the end of March 2018, the share of deposits in foreign currency amounted to 54.2% of total deposits, down by 1.5 p.p. YTD (and down by 5.2 p.p. YoY). Both households and businesses decreased their deposits in foreign currency (by 1.8 p.p. and 0.8 p.p. YTD, respectively).


24 August 2018
The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) has become a participant in Nasdaq OMX Armenia’s foreign exchange and government bond markets. Thereby, the EBD gets direct access to transactions in Armenia’s national currency and government securities. Should there arise demand on the part of market participants, the Bank is ready to offer market making services on Nasdaq OMX Armenia in respect of transactions in the national currencies of its member states. The EDB is at present a market maker for the RUB/KZT pair at the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange and Moscow Exchange
06 August 2018
The net profits of the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) amounted to US $37.542 million in the first half of 2018, while the target fixed in the bank's strategy until 2022 for the whole year is at US $32 million
03 August 2018
The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB), the Resources Manager of the Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development (EFSD, the Fund), and the Republic of Armenia have signed a Grant Agreement of US $1 million to be provided from the EFSD resources to support the Project “Improving Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases in Primary Health Care”. Andrey Beliyaninov, Chairman of the EDB Management Board, and Vardan Aramyan, Minister of Finance of the Republic of Armenia, signed the relevant document in April 2018
25 July 2018
The EDB announces the completion of the technical issue of 001P-01 bond of the nominal value of RUB 10 billion at the Moscow Stock Exchange under the programme (identification number 4-00002-L-001P-02E of 14 June 2018). The coupon rate is 7.60% per annum, the yield is 7.74%. The bond maturity is 1.5 years
19 July 2018
The Council of the Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development (EFSD), based on the outcomes of voting by correspondence, has approved the EFSD Annual Report 2017. The EFSD Annual report includes information on the activities undertaken by the Eurasian Development Bank in its capacity of the EFSD Resources Manager and related to manging and administering the EFSD resources in 2017
17 July 2018
Andrey Beliyaninov, Chairman of the Management Board of the Eurasian Development Bank, will talk at the Financing the Real Sector of the Economy Business Forum to take place on 19 July in Moscow
16 July 2018
Applications are invited for enrolment to the International Eurasian Integration School 2018 titled The Eurasian Economic Union: Contouring the Future. The school has been launched by the Russian International Affairs Council, the Alexander Gorchakov Public Diplomacy Fund, the Eurasian Economic Commission, and the Eurasian Development Bank
25 June 2018
The Council of the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) approved the Bank’s new mid-term strategy for 2018-2022. The meeting was chaired by Bakytzhan Sagintayev, Prime Minister of the Republic of Kazakhstan and Chair of the EDB Council
04 June 2018
The Eurasian Development Bank’s (EDB) delegation headed by Andrey Beliyaninov, Chairman of the Management Board, took part in the Third Annual Meeting of the New Development Bank (NDB) in Shanghai on 28-29 May
29 May 2018
In Q1 2018, multilateral development banks (MDB) approved finance for CIS investment projects for a total of US $2 billion, with sovereign finance accounting for 54% and the private sector 46%

Yerevan Representative Office

Address:
Erebuni Plaza Business Centre, office 811, 26/1 Sargsyan St., Yerevan, 0010, Republic of Armenia