Kyrgyzstan

EDB investment portfolio

01/10/2018

8 projects

$105 million

1.5% of the total

EFSD investment portfolio

06/30/2017

5 projects

$330 million

5.9% of the total


Kyrgyz Republic became a full member of Eurasian Development Bank in August 2011. Its contribution to the Bank’s capital is US $100,000.

Trends

GDP

2Q 2018 saw a low level of economic activity, which in general was in line with our expectations (see EDB Macro Review, June). At the same time, the amplitude of the slowdown in economic growth surpassed our estimates somewhat. In January-June 2018, GDP growth slowed to 0.1% (compared with January-June 2017), and in 2Q 2018 there was a decline of 0.8% compared with 2Q 2017.

In April-June of 2018, the rate of reduction in gold production at the Kumtor mine accelerated (–39.6% compared with 2Q 2017). This was the key reason for the production fall in the manufacturing industry (–10.6% YoY). A reduction in production was also noted in the extractive industry, which was partly due to the high base effect. Other sectors of the economy showed positive growth, and services (+4.8% YoY) and construction (+7.7% YoY) continued to make the main positive contributions. Despite the long winter and sharp temperature swings in the spring months of 2018, growth in the agricultural sectors remains stable (+1.5% YoY).

On the expenditure side of GDP in 1Q 2018, household consumption and gross capital formation contributed positively, while net exports declined amid a contraction in exports and an increase in imports in real terms.

The composite leading indicator calculated by the EEC indicates a recovery in economic activity in the short term. In all probability, 3Q 2018 will witness a reversal in the annual gold production growth trend, and the rate of reduction will begin to slow. In other sectors of the economy, business activity will continue at current levels. The preconditions for this are a stable level of consumer confidence and a positive credit impulse.

Inflation

In 2Q 2018, annual deflation in the food sector accelerated on a monthly basis, thereby ensuring a sharp slowdown in the growth of the general price level. The sharp slowdown is explained in part by the effect of a high base: a year earlier, vegetable prices rose 1.6-fold YoY. Weak price conditions on the regional grain market and the world sugar market also contributed to deflation in the food sector. Despite the growth of fuel prices amid rising world oil prices, the strengthening of the som against the US dollar since the beginning of the year has ensured low inflation in the non-food sector. Inflation in the services sector remained stable. In 2Q 2018, CPI increased by 1.4% YoY. Of its main components, food prices decreased by 3.5% YoY, non-food sector prices rose by 3.2% YoY, and service sector prices were up 7.3% YoY.

In the first months of 3Q 2018, inflation will remain below the target corridor. The preconditions for this are the absence of supply factor shocks and a stable domestic currency.

External sector

The som’s real effective exchange rate did not have a significant impact on the foreign trade performance in 1Q 2018. According to preliminary estimates, in 1Q 2018 the current account deficit expanded to USD 426.9 million. A year earlier, the deficit was USD 92.9 million. The decrease in exports of goods by 10.9% YoY was accompanied by a 36.5% increase in imports and a moderate increase in the net inflow of remittances (11.6% YoY). The export of goods decreased for such items as raw materials (–19.0% YoY), investment goods (–64.1% YoY) and intermediate goods (–4.4% YoY). The import growth was due to an increase in volumes of imported consumer goods (1.6 times more compared with 1Q 2017), intermediate goods (+15.2% YoY), investment goods (1.8-times more), and energy products (+5.9%).

Fiscal Policy

In 1H 2018, the budget deficit was reduced to 0.2% of GDP, while a year earlier the budget deficit was 1.9% of GDP. Growth of the budget’s revenue side was ensured by tax revenues (+18.1% YoY) and proceeds from the sale of non-financial assets up by 1.6 times, while a decrease was noted for other incomes. Budget revenue for 1H 2018 grew by 1.1% YoY. Current expenses increased by 5.1% compared with 1H 2017, while expenses on the acquisition of non-financial assets decreased by 40.2% YoY. Total expenses decreased by 3.9% compared with 1H 2018.

Public debt increased by 0.7% compared with the beginning of 2018 and amounted to 57.1% of GDP at the end of May 2018. The decline in external debt was 1.2% compared with the beginning of the year, while domestic debt in the first five months grew by 13.7%.

Monetary Policy

In May 2018, the discount rate was reduced by 25 basis points to 4.75%. The current recovery of domestic demand is accompanied by a low inflationary background in the food sector, which we expect in the medium term to lead to continued moderate price changes within the monetary policy target range of 5.0–7.0%. Money market rates on average for 2Q 2018 amounted to 2.5%.

Rates on newly placed deposits in domestic currency for the year decreased from 2.7% on average for 2Q 2017 to 2.5%. The cost of credit resources provided by commercial banks in domestic currency on average for 2Q 2018 was 18.3% (19.2% a year earlier).

The volume of newly issued loans increased by 11.9% compared with 2Q 2017, mainly due to the growth of loans issued in domestic currency (+15.1% YoY). Despite the reduction in deposit rates, the volume of newly accepted deposits in 2Q 2018 increased by 15.5% YoY, including an increase in those attracted in the domestic currency by 15.3% YoY.


08 August 2018
The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) and Halyk Bank Kyrgyzstan entered into framework agreements for a total of US $5 million to support trade finance and SME finance programmes (Projects). The instruments were signed on 8 August 2018 by Dmitry Ladikov-Roev, Managing Director for Assets and Liabilities at the EDB, and Aikyn Kabulov, Chairman of the Management Board at Halyk Bank Kyrgyzstan. The trade finance agreement is the EDB’s first transaction of this kind in Kyrgyzstan
06 August 2018
The net profits of the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) amounted to US $37.542 million in the first half of 2018, while the target fixed in the bank's strategy until 2022 for the whole year is at US $32 million
25 July 2018
The EDB announces the completion of the technical issue of 001P-01 bond of the nominal value of RUB 10 billion at the Moscow Stock Exchange under the programme (identification number 4-00002-L-001P-02E of 14 June 2018). The coupon rate is 7.60% per annum, the yield is 7.74%. The bond maturity is 1.5 years
19 July 2018
The Council of the Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development (EFSD), based on the outcomes of voting by correspondence, has approved the EFSD Annual Report 2017. The EFSD Annual report includes information on the activities undertaken by the Eurasian Development Bank in its capacity of the EFSD Resources Manager and related to manging and administering the EFSD resources in 2017
17 July 2018
Andrey Beliyaninov, Chairman of the Management Board of the Eurasian Development Bank, will talk at the Financing the Real Sector of the Economy Business Forum to take place on 19 July in Moscow
16 July 2018
Applications are invited for enrolment to the International Eurasian Integration School 2018 titled The Eurasian Economic Union: Contouring the Future. The school has been launched by the Russian International Affairs Council, the Alexander Gorchakov Public Diplomacy Fund, the Eurasian Economic Commission, and the Eurasian Development Bank
06 July 2018
The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) opened a correspondent account for domestic payments in the Kyrgyz som with the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic
25 June 2018
The Council of the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) approved the Bank’s new mid-term strategy for 2018-2022. The meeting was chaired by Bakytzhan Sagintayev, Prime Minister of the Republic of Kazakhstan and Chair of the EDB Council
04 June 2018
The Eurasian Development Bank’s (EDB) delegation headed by Andrey Beliyaninov, Chairman of the Management Board, took part in the Third Annual Meeting of the New Development Bank (NDB) in Shanghai on 28-29 May
29 May 2018
In Q1 2018, multilateral development banks (MDB) approved finance for CIS investment projects for a total of US $2 billion, with sovereign finance accounting for 54% and the private sector 46%

Bishkek Representative Office

Address:
21 Erkindik Blvd., Bishkek, 720040, Kyrgyz Republic