Russia

EDB investment portfolio

01/05/2019

63 projects

$3 192.2 million

41.6% of the total


Russia is a founder and the largest member of Eurasian Development Bank, holding two thirds of its charter capital (US $1 billion).

Trends

GDP

According to Rosstat, in 3Q2018 GDP grew by 1.5% YoY, down from 1.9% a quarter before. In January to September, real GDP grew by 1.6% YoY.

The causes of the economic slowdown included an output decrease in agriculture that reached 11.7% YoY in September 2018, as the grain harvest was lower than in 2017.

Industrial output growth remained at a level comparable with that of 2Q2018, as growth accelerated in all the main extracting industries – oil and gas production and ore and coal mining. In contrast, output growth in the manufacturing industries slowed, and September 2018 saw output decline by 0.1% YoY. Output growth was held back by the chemical industry, transport machine building and metallurgy.

The trends in consumer demand also contributed to the economic growth slowdown in the 3Q2018, as is indicated by the retail sales deceleration from 3.3% YoY in June to 2.3% in September 2018 as the ruble depreciated and consumer price inflation accelerated. Against this backdrop, real household income decreased by 2.5% YoY in September 2018 (in January to September 2018 income growth was 0.9% YoY).

Real growth of fixed capital investments, which accelerated to 5.2% YoY from 2.8% YoY a quarter before, made a positive contribution to output trends in 3Q2018. In addition, external demand continued to support Russian exports, as indicated by the increase in the physical volume of export supplies of such goods as oil and oil products, gas, coal, iron and steel, copper and aluminum in 3Q2018.

Inflation

Annual inflation increased from 2.3% in June 2018 to 3.4% in September 2018. Both food and non-food price growth accelerated. The contributing factors included a relatively low comparison base, fuel price growth resulting from trends in world oil prices, and the weakening of the ruble versus the currencies of Russia’s main trade partner countries, that accelerated in August and September 2018.

Inflation continued to increase in October and November 2018 to reach 3.8% YoY. Its acceleration was largely driven by food price growth after a harvest that was lower than in 2017.

Ruble weakening in August and September 2018 also made some contribution to the acceleration in inflation.

External Sector

The balance of payments in 3Q2018 posted a current account surplus of USD 26.4 billion. Relative to GDP, at 6.4%, it was the highest in the last ten years. In January to September 2018, the surplus expanded to USD 75.8 billion, or 6.3% of GDP (USD 19.7 billion, or 1.7% of GDP, the year before).

The current account surplus expansion resulted from the increase in the foreign trade surplus against the backdrop of relatively high prices for the main Russian export goods.

In 3Q2018, net capital exports by the private sector, mainly non-financial corporations, reached USD 19.2 billion, the highest same quarter figure since 2010.

In 3Q2018 the Central Bank of Russia took a pause in foreign currency purchases, conducted on behalf of the Ministry of Finance under the budget rule. As a result, reserve assets only grew by USD 5 billion in the 3Q2018, despite the oil price growth in the period, while in 1Q2018 they had grown by as much as USD 19.3 billion (the highest increment since 2011).

Fiscal Policy

According to the Federal Treasury, in January to September 2018 the federal budget posted a surplus of 2.6 trillion rubles, or 3.5% of GDP (in the same period of 2017 there was a deficit of 229.8 million rubles, or 0.6% of GDP). The main factor behind the switch to surplus was the growth of the budget’s oil and gas incomes, which increased by 48.4% YoY in January to September 2018, while other budget income increased by 14.3% YoY. According to Government officials, in 2018 the surplus of the federal budget may amount to 2.5% of GDP.

The law on the State budget for 2019 and the 2020–2021 planning period provides for a federal budget with a surplus of 0.8–1.8% of GDP during the projection period in the context of the budget rule implementation. Also, the budget law envisages federal expenditure growth within 0.5–1% of GDP compared to 2018, in particular, to fund the development and social policies specified by the Presidential ‘May Decrees’. The financing sources will include the VAT increase from 18% to 20% from January 2019 on.

Gross external debt decreased from USD 437 billion at the end of 2017 to USD 413 billion in September 2018. The biggest component of external debt, non-financial corporations’ debt, decreased from USD 345 billion to 317 billion.

Public external debt decreased in the same period, from USD 55.6 billion to USD 46.5 billion, or from 3.5% to 2.8% of GDP, in particular, as the need for debt financing decreased.

Monetary Policy

On 14 September 2018, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation raised its key rate from 7.25% to 7.5% amid increasing inflation risks. In another move intended to stabilize the foreign exchange market and thus limit inflation, it discontinued foreign currency purchases in the market made in the interests of the Ministry of Finance under the budget rule. The purchases may be resumed in January 2019, according to the regulator.

In 3Q2018, the volumes of financing of the national economy by the banking sector continued to grow. The banks’ claims on other sectors of the economy (in the form of loans, bonds, etc.) amounted to 61.3 trillion rubles in September 2018, an increase of 10.5% YoY. Growth was fastest in claims on households, which accelerated to 21% YoY in September 2018. The banking sector’s deposit base grew at a similar rate: the volume of deposits included in the M2 money stock grew by 11.3% YoY in September 2018.

Публикации по стране

Belt and Road Transport Corridors: Barriers and Investments
Learn more
10 October 2018
The respective agreement was signed by Andrey Beliyaninov, Chairman of the Management Board at the Eurasian Development Bank, and Dmitry Mironov, Governor of Yaroslavl Region
06 August 2018
The net profits of the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) amounted to US $37.542 million in the first half of 2018, while the target fixed in the bank's strategy until 2022 for the whole year is at US $32 million
25 July 2018
The EDB announces the completion of the technical issue of 001P-01 bond of the nominal value of RUB 10 billion at the Moscow Stock Exchange under the programme (identification number 4-00002-L-001P-02E of 14 June 2018). The coupon rate is 7.60% per annum, the yield is 7.74%. The bond maturity is 1.5 years
19 July 2018
The Council of the Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development (EFSD), based on the outcomes of voting by correspondence, has approved the EFSD Annual Report 2017. The EFSD Annual report includes information on the activities undertaken by the Eurasian Development Bank in its capacity of the EFSD Resources Manager and related to manging and administering the EFSD resources in 2017
17 July 2018
Andrey Beliyaninov, Chairman of the Management Board of the Eurasian Development Bank, will talk at the Financing the Real Sector of the Economy Business Forum to take place on 19 July in Moscow
16 July 2018
Applications are invited for enrolment to the International Eurasian Integration School 2018 titled The Eurasian Economic Union: Contouring the Future. The school has been launched by the Russian International Affairs Council, the Alexander Gorchakov Public Diplomacy Fund, the Eurasian Economic Commission, and the Eurasian Development Bank
25 June 2018
The Council of the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) approved the Bank’s new mid-term strategy for 2018-2022. The meeting was chaired by Bakytzhan Sagintayev, Prime Minister of the Republic of Kazakhstan and Chair of the EDB Council
04 June 2018
The Eurasian Development Bank’s (EDB) delegation headed by Andrey Beliyaninov, Chairman of the Management Board, took part in the Third Annual Meeting of the New Development Bank (NDB) in Shanghai on 28-29 May
29 May 2018
In Q1 2018, multilateral development banks (MDB) approved finance for CIS investment projects for a total of US $2 billion, with sovereign finance accounting for 54% and the private sector 46%
26 May 2018
The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) and the Big Asia TV channel launch continuous long-term cooperation. The respective memorandum was signed at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum by Andrey Krainiy, State Secretary at the EDB, and Alexander Lebedev, General Director of the media holding

St. Petersburg Branch

Address:
7 Paradnaya St., Saint Petersburg, 191014, Russian Federation

Moscow Representative Office

Address:
1-st Zachatievskiy pereulok, house 3, block 1, Moscow, 119034, Russian Federation

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