Tajikistan

EDB investment portfolio

01/12/2018

6 projects

$51.4 million

0.7% of the total

EFSD investment portfolio

06/30/2017

3 projects

$150 million

2.7% of the total


Tajikistan became a full member of Eurasian Development Bank in June 2009. Its contribution to the Bank’s capital is US $500,000.

Trends

GDP 

Infrastructure projects are providing the investment momentum for the economy, thereby helping to ensure a consistently high GDP growth rate. In January–June 2018, GDP growth accelerated to 7.2% YoY (+7.0% YoY in 1Q 2018).

In 1H 2018, the volume of investments increased by 33.1% YoY. At the same time, more than 50% of investments were distributed among two fields of economic activity: production, transmission and distribution of electricity (46.0% of the total volume) and textile and clothing production (10.0%). The share of state investments increased by 3.1 p.p. compared with January–June 2017, foreign investment grew by 1.7 p.p., while private investment decreased by 3.8 p.p.

According to our estimates, in 2Q 2018 textile production, which was the main driver of industrial growth in 1Q 2018, ceded that role to metallurgy and the production of final metal products. Against a backdrop of high activity in the construction sector, the production of other nonmetallic mineral products maintained its high contribution to industrial production growth.

In 2Q 2018, agriculture and retail trade’s contribution to economic growth also increased. Despite the relatively dry summer, the growth rates of crop production output were maintained at a high level.

The growth of retail turnover is accompanied by a slowdown in annual inflation and an increase in the inflow of remittances.

Infrastructure projects in the hydropower industry are adhering to established medium-term plans, which is creating the preconditions for maintaining growth in the remainder of 2018. The investments made in textile production and the revitalization of the metallurgical industry in 2Q 2018 may be factors for growth in export earnings in the remainder of the year. A low inflationary background will continue to support domestic consumer demand during 3Q 2018.  

Inflation 

For the fourth month in a row, annual inflation is below target, which is largely due to a weak price environment in the food sector. Despite the fact that in 1H 2018 world grain prices began to recover, the price situation in the region remained weak, which was reflected on the domestic market for breadstuffs and grains. An additional external factor was the decline in world sugar prices. These external factors combined with an excess supply of fruit and vegetable products contributed to a slowdown in food inflation, which in May 2018 moved into the deflation zone. This more than neutralized the effect of accelerating tariff growth for services (mainly utilities) and the growth of prices in the non-food sector (mainly due to an increase in gasoline prices). In 2Q 2018, CPI grew by 1.7% YoY, food prices decreased by 0.6% YoY, in the non-food sector prices increased by 4.6%, and the increase in prices for services amounted to 5.5% compared with 2Q 2017.

As the base effect continues, inflation in 3Q 2018 in the food segment will remain weak. Price dynamics in the non-food segment will depend on world energy prices, while an acceleration in the depreciation of the somoni exchange rate against the US dollar, observed in April-June 2018, may act as an additional factor. 

External Sector 

Given the stable dynamics of the TJS-USD currency pair, which lasted 11 months to April 2018, domestic consumer and investment demand in 1Q 2018 was partly financed from external sources. The reduction in export proceeds (–6.9% compared with 1Q 2017), accompanied by growth in the nominal volume of imports (+24.3% YoY), led to the 1.5-fold expansion of the goods and services deficit. Despite this, there was a noted improvement in the current account: its negative balance decreased by 38.2% YoY. This was mainly due to an increase in the total net inflow of balance of payments “primary and secondary income” items (+82.7% YoY), which, among other indicators, include remittances. This partly contributed to the positive growth rates in retail trade. At the same time, the largest increase in the nominal volume of imported products was seen in investment goods (machinery and equipment), the deliveries of which were partially financed from reserve assets accumulated from portfolio investments that had been previously attracted. 

Fiscal Policy 

In 1H 2018, the budget surplus amounted to 3.0% of GDP, which was 1.6 times more than the previous year. Budget revenues for the year increased by 11.8%, and expenses by 8.9%.

On the revenue side the share of tax and non-tax revenues increased by 8.1 p.p. to 80.6%, while the share of other revenues fell by 1.4 times. Expenditures in the social sphere (38.1% of total spending) and the fuel and energy complex (23.4%) continue to be priority areas for funding (23.4% of total expenditures). 

Monetary Policy

In 2Q 2018, the National Bank of Tajikistan did not change the refinancing rate and kept it at the level of 14.0%. The terms for withdrawal and provision of shortterm liquidity conditions for commercial banks changed. Thus, the interest rates for overnight loans were reduced from 16.0% to 15.0%, while overnight deposit rates fell from 7.0% to 5.0%. The decrease in interest rates on operational monetary policy instruments was most likely due to the need to bring the operational monetary policy targets into line with the new monetary terms that were introduced in 1Q 2018.

The probability of long-term inflation falling below the target benchmark has decreased against a background of an acceleration in the somoni’s rate of depreciation. In 1Q 2018 the somoni’s exchange rate against the US dollar remained stable (in March 2018 the somoni strengthened by 0.1% compared with December 2017), but by the end of June it had depreciated by 3.8% compared with the beginning of the year.

In the financial sector, despite measures taken to improve the banking sector, key indicators are still weak. The share of NPL as of the end of June 2018 was 32.0% of the total volume of loans, while the loan portfolio decreased by 11.3% compared with June 2017.


06 August 2018
The net profits of the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) amounted to US $37.542 million in the first half of 2018, while the target fixed in the bank's strategy until 2022 for the whole year is at US $32 million
25 July 2018
The EDB announces the completion of the technical issue of 001P-01 bond of the nominal value of RUB 10 billion at the Moscow Stock Exchange under the programme (identification number 4-00002-L-001P-02E of 14 June 2018). The coupon rate is 7.60% per annum, the yield is 7.74%. The bond maturity is 1.5 years
19 July 2018
The Council of the Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development (EFSD), based on the outcomes of voting by correspondence, has approved the EFSD Annual Report 2017. The EFSD Annual report includes information on the activities undertaken by the Eurasian Development Bank in its capacity of the EFSD Resources Manager and related to manging and administering the EFSD resources in 2017
17 July 2018
Andrey Beliyaninov, Chairman of the Management Board of the Eurasian Development Bank, will talk at the Financing the Real Sector of the Economy Business Forum to take place on 19 July in Moscow
16 July 2018
Applications are invited for enrolment to the International Eurasian Integration School 2018 titled The Eurasian Economic Union: Contouring the Future. The school has been launched by the Russian International Affairs Council, the Alexander Gorchakov Public Diplomacy Fund, the Eurasian Economic Commission, and the Eurasian Development Bank
25 June 2018
The Council of the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) approved the Bank’s new mid-term strategy for 2018-2022. The meeting was chaired by Bakytzhan Sagintayev, Prime Minister of the Republic of Kazakhstan and Chair of the EDB Council
04 June 2018
The Eurasian Development Bank’s (EDB) delegation headed by Andrey Beliyaninov, Chairman of the Management Board, took part in the Third Annual Meeting of the New Development Bank (NDB) in Shanghai on 28-29 May
29 May 2018
In Q1 2018, multilateral development banks (MDB) approved finance for CIS investment projects for a total of US $2 billion, with sovereign finance accounting for 54% and the private sector 46%
17 May 2018
The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) has considerable potential, in terms of its contribution to integration in Eurasia, to consolidate integration ties both within the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and in megaregional projects, such as the Belt and Road Initiative
10 May 2018
In the long term, the growth of container traffic along the China – EAEU – EU axis will be constrained by a range of non-tariff barriers, as well as the risk that Chinese provinces will discontinue export container traffic subsidies

Dushanbe Representative Office

Address:
48, Aini Street, Sozidanie Business Center, Dushanbe 734024, Republic of Tajikistan

We use cookies to take account of your preferences and improve your experience on our website. We assume that by continuing to use our website you agree with our use of cookies. You can always configure your Internet browser to refuse to have cookies saved by our website.

Yes More