Tajikistan

EDB investment portfolio

01/05/2019

6 projects

$51.4 million

0.7% of the total

EFSD investment portfolio

01/05/2019

2 projects

$90 million

2% of the total


Tajikistan became a full member of Eurasian Development Bank in June 2009. Its contribution to the Bank’s capital is US $500,000.

Trends

GDP

Annual economic growth slowed somewhat in the 3Q2018 compared to 2Q2018, which is largely due to the high base effect in construction and agriculture. Nevertheless, in 2018 the level of economic activity was higher than in 2017. In January to September 2018, GDP grew by 7.0% YoY (+6.8% in January to September 2017).

Although at the beginning of the second half of 2018 the contribution of investment to GDP growth decreased somewhat against the previous year’s high base, in January to September 2018 investment grew at a high rate, 15.8% YoY (+4.3% YoY in the same period of 2017).

The agricultural sector’s performance also limited economic growth due to this season’s cotton crop, that was lower than in January to September 2017, when output grew 1.5 fold in annual terms.

Industrial growth slowed from 16.9% in January to June 2018 to 13.5% in January to September 2018. The slowdown in annual growth in the industrial sector is partly due to a temporary output reduction in the mining industries and metallurgy.

The service sector has demonstrated overall turnover growth, spurred by an increase in hotel and restaurant services.

The State infrastructural development programs will support investment demand through the remainder of 2018. The growth of real wages and net inflow of remittances are conducive to the maintenance of the current level of consumer demand.  

Inflation

In 3Q2018, the inflation trend reversed: after four consecutive quarters of decrease, the consumer price growth rate began accelerating. While in July 2018 annual inflation was 2.3%, by September 2018 it had increased to 5.0%. In July and August 2018 air fares increased by 47.5% and 16.7%, respectively. The favorable base effect of the previous year’s high supply of fruit and vegetable produce petered out in August 2018. The growth of flour, rice, and fuel and lubricant prices began to contribute positively to CPI trends. In September 2018 food prices grew by 4.8% YoY, while inflation was 5.7% in the non-food sector and 4.3% YoY in the service sector.

In 4Q2018, inflation trends will stabilize within the target range, partly assisted by the calm domestic foreign exchange market.

External Sector

Import growth exceeding goods and services export growth widened the current account deficit in first half of 2018. Investment goods, namely machines and equipment, account for most of increased imports. In first half of 2018, foreign exchange revenue on the secondary income account fell below that in the same period of 2017. On the financial account, an increasing inflow of foreign direct investment has been observed. The foreign currency funding gap on external accounts operations was filled with funds from the reserve assets.

In 3Q2018, the real effective somoni exchange rate strengthened by 1.4% compared to 3Q2017. This was primarily due to somoni strengthening in real terms by 4.9% YoY versus the Russian ruble.

Fiscal Policy

In January to September 2018 the budget posted a deficit of 1.0% of GDP, while the year before it had a surplus of 0.6% of GDP. In the first eight months of 2018 the public finance sector had remained in surplus. In September 2018 the funding of the energy sector increased sharply. While in January to August 2018 public investment in this sector was 2.9 billion somoni, in January to September its volume rose to 4.2 billion somoni.

While the expenditure side spiked, the income trends remained stable. Budget income grew by 10.7% compared to January to September 2017, due to 12.9% YoY increase in tax revenues being along with other key drivers.

Monetary Policy

In 3Q2018 the National Bank of Tajikistan kept its refinancing rate unchanged at 14.0%. The rate decisions during the quarter were based on expectations of inflation risks rising in the projection period and inflation approaching the target.

In 2018 the NBT increased the volume of notes in circulation to remove excessive liquidity from the banking system and keep the average interest rate on NBT notes at the refinancing rate level. The money market rates also reached the set interest range.

The interest rates on loans in national currency issued by commercial banks remained the same during the year, at 28.9% on average in 3Q2018. The rates on deposits in national currency were 0.6% on average in 3Q2018 (0.5% the year before).

In the financial area the key indicators still remain weak, despite the measures taken by the government and NBT to rehabilitate the banking sector. The share of nonperforming loans in the total volume of loans was 31.7% in September 2018 (41.8% the year before). The loan’s portfolio decreased by 6.0% compared to September 2017. Return on assets was 1.56% (0.19% in September 2017), and return on equity grew to 5.59% (0.71% in September 2017).

Публикации по стране

Belt and Road Transport Corridors: Barriers and Investments
Learn more
18 April 2019
Tajikistan’s medium-term economic growth is expected to stabilise at around 7.0%, The Macroeconomic Review prepared by the Directorate for Research at the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) suggests
26 March 2019
The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB), as the Resources Manager of the Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development (EFSD), took part in the official launch of the Nurek HPP Rehabilitation project. President of Tajikistan Emomali Rahmon attended the ceremony
05 March 2019
The Project Block of the Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development (EFSD) managed by the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) visited Tajikistan with a mission from 25 February to 1 March 2019. The main objective of the mission was to negotiate the agreement on the investment credit to be extended by the EFSD for the Nurek HPP Rehabilitation (Phase 1) Project with the Tajik delegation headed by Minister of Finance Faiziddin Qahhorzoda
06 February 2019
The Council of the Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development (EFSD) approved a US $40 million investment credit to finance Phase 1 of the Nurek HPP Rehabilitation Project
06 August 2018
The net profits of the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) amounted to US $37.542 million in the first half of 2018, while the target fixed in the bank's strategy until 2022 for the whole year is at US $32 million
25 July 2018
The EDB announces the completion of the technical issue of 001P-01 bond of the nominal value of RUB 10 billion at the Moscow Stock Exchange under the programme (identification number 4-00002-L-001P-02E of 14 June 2018). The coupon rate is 7.60% per annum, the yield is 7.74%. The bond maturity is 1.5 years
19 July 2018
The Council of the Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development (EFSD), based on the outcomes of voting by correspondence, has approved the EFSD Annual Report 2017. The EFSD Annual report includes information on the activities undertaken by the Eurasian Development Bank in its capacity of the EFSD Resources Manager and related to manging and administering the EFSD resources in 2017
17 July 2018
Andrey Beliyaninov, Chairman of the Management Board of the Eurasian Development Bank, will talk at the Financing the Real Sector of the Economy Business Forum to take place on 19 July in Moscow
16 July 2018
Applications are invited for enrolment to the International Eurasian Integration School 2018 titled The Eurasian Economic Union: Contouring the Future. The school has been launched by the Russian International Affairs Council, the Alexander Gorchakov Public Diplomacy Fund, the Eurasian Economic Commission, and the Eurasian Development Bank
25 June 2018
The Council of the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) approved the Bank’s new mid-term strategy for 2018-2022. The meeting was chaired by Bakytzhan Sagintayev, Prime Minister of the Republic of Kazakhstan and Chair of the EDB Council

Dushanbe Representative Office

Address:
48, Aini Street, Sozidanie Business Center, Dushanbe 734024, Republic of Tajikistan

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